Is 30 a bad age for VP?

[uncle tom]

I'm currently drinking a Warre '85 from a case that I've owned for many years, and am musing over how it compares with Warre '75 when drunk 10 years ago.

I'm in little doubt that this is the better of the two when judged at a similar age, but equally certain that if the two wines were offered side by side today, the '75 would be the clear favourite.

Go back 3 to 5 years though and it's a different story - then, the W75 was the awkward wine, showing age but without integration or real maturity, whilst the W85 was the promising new kid on the block.

Looking at my own notes - and those of others - there seems to be a trend here: When VP hits 30 it seems to fall off the maturation cliff to the extent that people doubt it will ever recover, only to come back smiling a decade later.

Look at Suckling's dismissal of the (now delightful) '58 vintage in 1989, or Mayson's (now unwarranted) mea culpa over the '77 vintage in his second edition.

VP seems to have it's first flash of elegance when first released, followed by a closed period that everyone understands. Then it goes through what I have previously described as it's 'Kevin' years - the disappointing teenager, followed by a period of stylish early maturity.

But there seems to be a clear second period of disappointment, kicking in at around the age of 30, before real maturity emerges..

[DRT]

VP seems to have it's first flash of elegance when first released, followed by a closed period that everyone understands. Then it goes through what I have previously described as it's 'Kevin' years - the disappointing teenager, followed by a period of stylish early maturity.

But there seems to be a clear second period of disappointment, kicking in at around the age of 30, before real maturity emerges..

If that description had come from my mother I might be tempted to think she was talking about my life

[Doggett]

I think you maybe on to something Tom. Based on the two horizontals before Christmas, I thought that the 75s showed well as a collective with a few standing out as very good. However, I thought the 85s were a bit disappointing as a collective albeit that the best were better than the 75s. Overall it seems the structure is stronger for the 85s, but on the whole, they failed to live up to that billing at the tasting. The good news is that a future 85 horizontals will hopefully be great tastings and showing even better than they did last year.

To further explore the hypothesis, it would be interesting to hear thoughts about the relative merits and devopment of the other vintages that have recently been through the 30 year barrier and heading towards greater maturity. Do people feel that the 77s, 80s and even 83s have had a 'closed' period in recent years that they are now improving away from?

Simon

[jdaw1]

Is this proposed as a narrative of what happened to a small number of vintages, not necessarily representative of all? Sure, but of low predictive utility.

Is this proposed as a general rule? Remind me of the dates of 1955’s and 1970’s “second period of disappointment”. Or describe the narrative for 1963: will it come back, or is it dying?

I concede 1960.

[uncle tom]

Is this proposed as a narrative of what happened to a small number of vintages, not necessarily representative of all? Sure, but of low predictive utility.

There's not really enough reportage in the pre internet era to be sure of this, and writers of old had a bad habit of looking over each other's shoulders or copying their first impressions, rather than forming their own running opinions.

- So it's just a hypothesis for the testing..

describe the narrative for 1963: will it come back, or is it dying?

A question I've discussed with AHB a few times. I would venture a much more cautious hypothesis, that cool cellared VP from good years tends to become eventually settled in its maturity, and then remain on fine form for many years thereafter. I recently decanted a Croft '63 that exhibited the serene elegance of such wines, and with that the hope that the vintage might be emerging from it's apparent decline..

[jdaw1]

There's not really enough reportage in the pre internet era to be sure of this, and writers of old had a bad habit of looking over each other's shoulders or copying their first impressions, rather than forming their own running opinions.

- So it's just a hypothesis for the testing..

Agreed: it is a plausible hypothesis, but cannot be more than that.

I would venture a much more cautious hypothesis, that cool cellared VP from good years tends to become eventually settled in its maturity, and then remain on fine form for many years thereafter. I recently decanted a Croft '63 that exhibited the serene elegance of such wines, and with that the hope that the vintage might be emerging from it's apparent decline..

Good hypotheses are falsifiable. Obviously, if the ’63s come back, then that would increase the likelihood of the hypothesis being true. But if they don’t come back, how long must we wait before saying that the hypothesis has failed? Must we wait until 60 years after the harvest?

With ’75s the age of good-old-age seems to be forty. If good-old-age is sixty for the ’63s, then the hypothesis lacks specifics more functional than ‘things go up and down’.

[flash_uk]

Do people feel that the 77s, 80s and even 83s have had a 'closed' period in recent years that they are now improving away from?

Simon

I did not taste the 1980 vintage 5 to 10 years ago so I can't say how it was then, but in recent tastings I would say Dow, Graham, GC, SW and Warre have all shown to be on the young side with great potential. I personally think these wines will prove to be superior to the '85s.

The Fonseca 1980 is not spectacular though. Taylor I am not sure about either.

[DRT]

Are there too many uncontrollable variables for this hypothesis to ever be proven?

I think so.

At best we could take one stash that was bottled and stored consistently over a 60 year period.

But we have already proven three times that bottles from a single case are inconsistent. So our 60 year experiment would produce unreliable results.

[Glenn E.]

the hypothesis lacks specifics more functional than ‘things go up and down’.

I think this is all that there is, unfortunately.

I also think that the frequency varies from producer to producer, and possibly from vintage to vintage. Take 1985, for example. I have had nothing but great luck with F85 and consider it clearly superior to T85. You in London seem to be having the opposite luck - your T85s are showing supremely well, while F85 seems to be faltering. I don't believe it is regional taste, either, because I got to try a UK T85 vs a UK F85 and agreed, though my comment at the time was that it was the best T85 I'd ever had and the worst F85 that I'd had in years.

So yes, things go up and down.

[Andy Velebil]

I also think they go through a phase, though shorter, around the 5O year mark. Much as the 1960 and 1963 have in recent memory as we've seen.


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[LGTrotter]

I would agree with those who have said that this is impossible to pin down exactly, but so is almost anything in considering old wines.

The original point Tom makes regarding the Warre 85 is one that I would concur with, despite the contradiction of recent tastings which rated the Warre 85 very highly. However I am less convinced by the view that the 75s are blossoming. It is true that I have no recent experience to base this on but those I have tried have been so poor that I simply do not believe they will be anything other than sugar water with a bit of hospital bandage thrown in to distract from the overriding taste of elderly root vegetables. But for me this will remain speculative as I have no intention of spending the money which the 75s have begun to command.

To support the original thesis I did notice that the 70s were a bit dumb around the thirty year mark and they seem to have emerged triumphant. Flash mentions the 1980, views which I would support and having drunk quite a few of them around the 30 year mark they too seemed very closed. Certainly this was reflected in the pricing of the vintage at this time. The 83s have yet to emerge from their dumb phase, but they were dumb to start with, dumb in the middle and will in all probability remain so until the last one is drunk.

There are may other interesting points which have been touched on, "the narrative of the 63" is one which could be enlarged on. Charm is the word I think of. And charm is an almost pejorative word when thinking of wine, they may emerge again, but like any ageing prima donna, it is all looking a bit Jackie Stallone these days. Wouldn't you agree Alex.

[Andy Velebil]

One thing I've noticed, very unscientifically mind you, is that while young top end VP tends to enter and come out of their very young awkward phase on a somewhat similar time scale that isn't the case when they start hitting the 25-30 year old range. There seems to be a lot of variations in time they enter it and how long they stay in it.


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[Alex Bridgeman]

...it is all looking a bit Jackie Stallone these days. Wouldn't you agree Alex.

Are you saying I look like Jackie Stallone?

Coming back to the original question and the discussion that followed. It is clear to me that vintage port goes through ups and downs and that these are very hard to predict. As Owen points out, buying and drinking old wine is fraught with risk. Risk which can be avoided through a small but important change in personal behaviour.

The conclusion is obvious: from now on we should concentrate only on drinking young port, preferably young enough not to have closed down for the first time. Vintages of choice are currently 2013, 2012, 2011 and 2009. Anything else is too old, too risky and should be thrown away.

There, am I the only one to have fully understood the conclusion to be drawn from the discussion so far?

[DRT]

AHB is hereby appointed as my Head of Sales & Marketing.

[LGTrotter]

There, am I the only one to have fully understood the conclusion to be drawn from the discussion so far?

While this may be the conclusion you would draw it is not one which I would share. I think that we have been overrun by the determinists who insist on absolute empirical evidence, despite the obvious lack of it most areas of life. I think Tom's thought is an interesting one and has found some support in this discussion. So the conclusion I would draw is that there may be a thirty year sulk, to be followed by Andy's proposed fifty year sulk. Neither of these will prevent me from drinking what I fancy but may give me some food for thought as I drink. Which makes it all worthwhile.

[flash_uk]

My conclusion is that port sulks from time to time.

[DRT]

My conclusion is that port sulks from time to time.

+1

I agree with this but just think there are so many factors to consider when attempting to analyse this subject over half a century or more that there simply isn't enough reliable evidence to pin the pattern of sulking down to specific ages.

[Andy Velebil]

My conclusion is that port sulks from time to time.

+1

I agree with this but just think there are so many factors to consider when attempting to analyse this subject over half a century or more that there simply isn't enough reliable evidence to pin the pattern of sulking down to specific ages.

I agree. Once you get past the 20 year mark a lot comes into play. Guess we'll all have to start drinking more Port to test our theories

[DaveRL]

Did the 1983 Vintage go into a sulk at around 30?

[Glenn E.]

My conclusion is that port sulks from time to time.

+1

I agree with this but just think there are so many factors to consider when attempting to analyse this subject over half a century or more that there simply isn't enough reliable evidence to pin the pattern of sulking down to specific ages.

I agree. Once you get past the 20 year mark a lot comes into play. Guess we'll all have to start drinking more Port to test our theories

I'd even argue that it isn't necessarily the 20-year mark. Even the "classic" teenage funky time isn't rigidly defined. Some of the 1994s took more than 20 years (to me) to fully emerge from that funk, whereas others either never got into the funk or emerged early (<15).

So... yeah. Things go up and down. Port sulks from time to time.

[CaliforniaBrad]

My conclusion is that port sulks from time to time.

+1

I agree with this but just think there are so many factors to consider when attempting to analyse this subject over half a century or more that there simply isn't enough reliable evidence to pin the pattern of sulking down to specific ages.

I agree. Once you get past the 20 year mark a lot comes into play. Guess we'll all have to start drinking more Port to test our theories

I'd even argue that it isn't necessarily the 20-year mark. Even the "classic" teenage funky time isn't rigidly defined. Some of the 1994s took more than 20 years (to me) to fully emerge from that funk, whereas others either never got into the funk or emerged early (<15).

So... yeah. Things go up and down. Port sulks from time to time.

I suspect that the "modern" Port vintages will display a different looking aging curve than those of the 80's, 70's and before due to substantial differences between cleanliness, vilification and vineyard practices. That said, I also suspect storage and cork variability will always be a huge factor in the quality of wines 20+ years post vintage, and I can't imagine that improving too much.

So yes, in a rigidly controlled environment, perhaps clear similarities in different vintages' curves could be identified, but in a world as imperfect as ours, I doubt a firm conclusion could ever be reached.

[Andy Velebil]

You raise a good point that I disagree with. There has been a lot of improvement with cork quality over the past 40 years. Especially the past 15 or so as producers have been demanding cork companies do more to clean up their old ways and invest in putting out a better product. So even corks, along with what you mentioned, and don't forget brandy quality, will have a big impact. I'm really curious to see just how VP awkward phases may change with all the advancements. Time will tell....


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