2008 vintage - The countdown

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uncle tom
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2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by uncle tom »

While the climate in the Douro is significant throughout the year - especially with regard to yields; the difference between a declarable year, and an also-ran, is almost always determined in the 40 days between now and the end of September.

So far, the conditions this year have not been particularly auspicious with regard to yield, as the period of fruit set was less than ideal. But small yields can also be a harbinger of good quality; so from the VP perspective things have been proceeding well, with more than a passing similarity to the vintage of 2000.

The immediate weather forecast is also good. A slightly mediocre 15 day forecast a few days ago has now been revised to show good hot weather over the next fortnight, punctuated by a single wet day on the 25th.

Looking further afield at the atlantic hurricane season, the remnants of which have so frequently rebounded off the Americas to give the Iberian peninsula an unwelcome soaking during vintage, the situation is also looking good.

Tropical storm Fay is now projected to head directly into the US mainland, and is likely to be completely demolished in the process. Following on, a broad atlantic depression that developed a couple of days ago has now been downgraded from a code Orange to a code Yellow, making it unlikely to develop into a storm worthy of a name.

Beyond that, there is currently nothing on the horizon.

Feedback from the front line would now be very welcome, particularly with regard to the timing of the vintage. Historically, the picking of the best grapes from the best Quintas has normally commenced on about the 20th of September - it would be very interesting to know whether this vintage is likely to run ahead or behind of that benchmark.

Tom
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill
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g-man
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by g-man »

I'm excited as 2008 would be my marriage year and am looking to stash a way some port!
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benread
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by benread »

g-man wrote:I'm excited as 2008 would be my marriage year and am looking to stash a way some port!
....and the year my 1st child was born!
Ben
-------
Vintage 1970 and now proud owner of my first ever 'half-century'!
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jdaw1
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by jdaw1 »

I’m moderately excited as 2008 is the hundredth anniversary of the Ideal Home Exhibition, and, more entertainingly, of the mostly-fictional wager of Harry Bensley.
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uncle tom
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by uncle tom »

Well, while Julian is hanging out the flags for the centenary of the Ideal Home Exhibition, I'm keeping my beady little eyes on a little weather system that's starting to brew between Cape Verde and Dakar..

Each to his own, I suppose... :wink:

Tom
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill
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Frederick Blais
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Frederick Blais »

Haven't got any exciting news yet on 2008. Normally when I chat with farmers, producers during the year, you can feel the excitement when a good vintage is on the way. So far, I did not notice anything about 2008. I'll try to get some fresh news, or in 2 weeks, we should know more.
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mosesbotbol
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by mosesbotbol »

Could care less about whether 2008 will be a vintage year. Sorry to rain on the parade.
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uncle tom
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by uncle tom »

Could care less about whether 2008 will be a vintage year. Sorry to rain on the parade.
Why?

Tom
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Andy Velebil »

mosesbotbol wrote:Could care less about whether 2008 will be a vintage year. Sorry to rain on the parade.
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RonnieRoots
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by RonnieRoots »

I care a lot. Hope that it will be a good vintage, or at least that some good SQVP's will be produced.
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mosesbotbol
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by mosesbotbol »

My lack of caring about 2008 is because I am still buying pre-2000 vintages and do not know when or if I will ever be buying 2008's.

I would like every season to be a banner year in the Douro.

If 2008's come out in 2010, I wait 20 years to drink them, that's 2030 at a minimum. I will be over 60 years old and will hopefully have a fully stocked cellar by then. There are/will be plenty of great vintages to buy, and the way pricing is on new vintages, I see little to get excited about.
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uncle tom
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by uncle tom »

If 2008's come out in 2010, I wait 20 years to drink them, that's 2030 at a minimum. I will be over 60 years old and will hopefully have a fully stocked cellar by then. There are/will be plenty of great vintages to buy, and the way pricing is on new vintages, I see little to get excited about.
Build as if you will live forever, live as if you will die tomorrow! (- variously attributed..)

- A much easier mantra than worrying about whether you'll live long enough to drink your cellar!

Tom
I may be drunk, Miss, but in the morning I shall be sober and you will still be ugly - W.S. Churchill
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mosesbotbol
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by mosesbotbol »

uncle tom wrote:
If 2008's come out in 2010, I wait 20 years to drink them, that's 2030 at a minimum. I will be over 60 years old and will hopefully have a fully stocked cellar by then. There are/will be plenty of great vintages to buy, and the way pricing is on new vintages, I see little to get excited about.
Build as if you will live forever, live as if you will die tomorrow! (- variously attributed..)

- A much easier mantra than worrying about whether you'll live long enough to drink your cellar!

Tom
I am going to keep building, just concentrating on vintages that are not that current.
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Frederick Blais
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Frederick Blais »

I got some news today from 2 sources. One that is mostly coming around small producers and the other one from reputable port house. Both friends are not everyday in the field but involved closely in the market and in touch with growers/producers on a weekly basis at least.

So far, the echos of a warm spring, wet and cool summer are not creating excitement of a perfect announced vintage. As one said, "you could have the best set up today and then 2 weeks of rain in september can ruin it all". So right now, the condition are not perfect for port but they can get better and the chance of declaring a vintage quality harvest is not ruled out by any mean.

Some farmers should start to harvest the white grapes this week.
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DRT
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by DRT »

It is not long now before we can ask them directly in the Douro 88)

It will also be interesting to gauge the level of enthusiasm for declaring 2007. It seems that most, if not all, shippers have been making encouraging noises about that vintage but I wonder what impact the current economic climate will have on their decision to declare. 2008 certainly doesn't seem to have had the best of weather conditions so far so it may prove to be too difficult not to declare 2007, despite the fact that a larger than average proportion of the vintage may be difficult to sell immediately. Maybe we can look forward to seeing lots of ex-cellars 2007 VPs hit the market in 2017 88)
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Andy Velebil »

If 2008 doesn't pan out for a general overall declaration it will have been 5 years since the last one in '03. Which means they are really due for one. The 2007's, if so declared as people are saying, won't be released for at least another year or more. Time enough for the economy to rebound a little perhaps. Or a great scoring wine for less than a $100/bottle is a great deal when compared to Bordeaux, Napa Cab's, and other dry wines right now.
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DRT
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by DRT »

Andy V wrote:The 2007's, if so declared as people are saying, won't be released for at least another year or more.
Andy, If 2007 is declared it will happen in April 2009, only 7 months from now, and the wine merchants here in the UK will begin selling it almost immediately. Shipping may take another 6 months but they will begin collecting cash in April or May.
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Andy Velebil »

although "futures" are done on Burgandy and Bordeaux here, I've generally not seen it on Vintage Ports...yet. Then again, unless the prices for futures are that much better (like they are for Bordeaux) I'll just wait until they hit the shelves and then find the cheapest prices. But for us, they won't hit the shelves until toward the end of next year. But, if they are declared, they won't even bottle them for almost another year still.
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by DRT »

Andy V wrote:But, if they are declared, they won't even bottle them for almost another year still.
They will be bottled in the spring/summer of 2009, possibly even before the declaration is announced. By then they will have had their "2 winters in wood" and will be ready to bottle. A few shippers might wait until 2010 but 99% of the VP I see has a bottling year which is the vintage + 2 years.
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Andy Velebil »

Considering we are still in August.....that is about a year away by my definition :P :lol:
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Andy Velebil »

BTW,
Unless a miracle happens in the next couple of weeks it doesn't look good for a large major declaration, in terms of quality and enough quantity. I would guess and say 2008 will probably have some very good SQVPs.
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Frederick Blais »

Andy V wrote:BTW,
Unless a miracle happens in the next couple of weeks it doesn't look good for a large major declaration, in terms of quality and enough quantity. I would guess and say 2008 will probably have some very good SQVPs.
Well even though we have great quality, it is doubtful '08 will be declared for many reasons. 2007 is probably one of them, hype of the season, market etc.

I got news from two growers today. One in Valley Mendiz and the other one in the Douro Superior. Both are witnessing great variation in the maturity of their grapes within the same rows.

In the Douro Superior, some will start to harvest from next week as for Valley Mendiz this grower was hoping for rain within the few days to then get sun and start harvesting from the 3rd week of September.
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Andy Velebil »

I got news from two growers today. One in Valley Mendiz and the other one in the Douro Superior. Both are witnessing great variation in the maturity of their grapes within the same rows.
I too have heard this from a couple of different producers now. The growing season has been spotty and uneven and that means a lot of sorting when grapes are picked and reduced overall yields. Not good for a general decalration, but good for smaller batches of SQVPs or to put toward Colheita's or future tawny blends.
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uncle tom
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by uncle tom »

Well, the broad atlantic depression I commented on twelve days ago pulled itself together and turned into hurricane Gustav, whose remnants are not, I think, a threat. A couple more storms (Hanna & Ike) have also formed, and could cause problems; but the one I'm worried about was the system I saw forming off the coast of Dakar, which has now been christened Josephine.

The trajectory and timing of this system poses a significant threat to the european vintage, as it could easily swing round without making landfall in the US, and come crashing into europe at exactly the wrong time - you can track its progress here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.sh ... y#contents

Besides that, the weather forecasts are looking very fair, although possibly a little too dry - previous forecasts of rain do not appear to have materialised.

The reports of uneven ripening are a worry, but not a death sentence - the vintage reports from '94 mention similar problems, but no-one complained about the outcome!

Tom
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Re: 2008 vintage - The countdown

Post by Frederick Blais »

uncle tom wrote:
The reports of uneven ripening are a worry, but not a death sentence - the vintage reports from '94 mention similar problems, but no-one complained about the outcome!

Tom
Though I think that 94 was way hotter. A grower told me that in August the nights were especially cold, which is unusual. His crop seems normal regarding to quantity, just 2 weeks late at the moment. We'll go and visit him togheter btw :)
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