2008 vintage - The countdown

[uncle tom]

A grower told me that in August the nights were especially cold, which is unusual. His crop seems normal regarding to quantity, just 2 weeks late at the moment. We'll go and visit him togheter btw

Cool nights were cited as a reason to declare 2007 - in the rather premature statements made last year..

I'm really looking forward to meeting you Fred - my thanks to you and Derek for making the arrangements..!

Tom

[Glenn E.]

I'll be meeting you as well on that Sunday!

I can't wait for this trip, it's going to be a blast!

[DRT]

I can't wait to get out there again. I'm starting to think 2 trips per year isn't enough

[uncle tom]

Well, what a difference a day can make..

The last couple of days have been rainy in the Douro, and given the long run of seemingly dry weather, that rain was probably welcome; but yesterday the outlook was very poor, with a drenching from the remains of Hanna expected at the end of next week, and the legacy of Josephine rolling in at the start of harvest.

But storms are masters of surprise!

Tropical storm Hanna is currently running up the US east coast and is now expected to sling shot rapidly across the atlantic, tracking further north than previously forecast, and crashing into the UK next Thursday (as if we need the rain.. )

Hurricane Ike is now forecast to run into the Gulf of Mexico and is headed directly towards - you guessed it - New Orleans... It will almost certainly be dissipated by the US mainland thereafter.

But the really good news is that Josephine has quite suddenly given up, and dissipated in mid-Atlantic..

The forecast for harvest in the Douro is now very much improved...

Looking at the satellite maps, there is little indication of serious threats on the horizon. There is quite a lot of activity over the African west coast, but it is fairly well south, and shows little sign of developing into a maritime system at this point.

So, fingers crossed..!

Tom

[Frederick Blais]

Received an email today from a grower. "raining hard" for the last 2 days was his words. It did not seem to worried and just said that his harvest start date could be push further.

[DRT]

I'm in the Douro. Weather is nice but cold. Grapes are very healthy so far and full of freshness.

All best from a sunny Noval where we have a great harvest just getting under way

[DRT]

We have started picking our white grapes and some for making red wine. Nothing for port yet. It is sunny but cool, which at this stage is just fine. The grapes are very healthy and the quality potential is excellent. But we have at least 5 weeks more of Vindima. Best, Christian.

[RonnieRoots]

Good to hear some positive news. Fingers crossed!

[uncle tom]

So far this month the weather has been pretty good, punctuated only by heavy rain on the 21st. Reports from Fred suggest that the rain did not unduly worry the producers, and the weather since seems to have been bright and sunny.

Forecasts of rain this weekend have thankfully evaporated, and the forecast for the rest of the month is now looking very good indeed. With the vintage running late, this is now the critical period for harvesting the best port grapes.

The Symingtons have now published their 'Insider' report for August, which concludes on quite a bullish note. The weather hoped for at the conclusion of that report seems to have been delivered, so it will be very interesting to see the initial reports from the producers over the next few weeks

Tom

http://www.thevintageportsite.com/vinta ... .aspx?pg=8

[DRT]

Throughout the Douro weather has been dry and warm since we arrived, and reportedly for some days before. Even in Superior, eg at Meao, harvest not yet finished. But growers speak more highly of 2007.

[DRT]

At Tedo. Mostly picked, except Franca, which starts Monday. Phenolic ripeness better than sugar ripeness. Weather warm and dry.

[jdaw1]

And it was dry and comfortably warm in Porto when I left this morning.

[uncle tom]

The conditions during harvest seem to have been just about perfect over the last fortnight, but the forecast is now looking more problematic.

The BBC maps indicate a fine day Monday with a band of heavy rain sweeping across on Tuesday, while Accuweather reckon there may be showers Monday and a fine day Tuesday - take your pick!

Overall, the '08 growing season seems to have been less problematic than '07, and the conditions through harvest have been much more benign.

In other respects, the two years have quite a lot in common, both of them cooler than usual and running late as a result.

While the cheerleaders for another '7' vintage seem content to dismiss the '08's before they've even finished fermenting, I would reckon there's a sporting chance that declarable wines are being made this year, although I would be surprised if it proved to be a blockbuster.

The valleys of the Douro may feel a world away from the harsh realities of the current credit crisis, but the people who buy their products are very much in the thick of it. The UK wine merchants are now resigned to a dire Christmas season, and the seasonal sales figures may well take the wind out of the producer's sails.

The producers have a long history of avoiding declarations during recessions, and got their fingers burnt when they declared the 80's into a relatively minor downturn in 1982.

While some argue that an '07 declaration is now inevitable, it would seem insane to launch a new declaration when the principal markets for VP are in economic meltdown, especially if the wines from '08 are good enough to declare instead; when, hopefully, things are a little more settled the following year.

Whilst it can be argued that the producers need the declaration to help with their own credit issues, a declaration that flops in the market place would present them with an even greater dilemma..

Tom

[DRT]

Many of the large shippers now bottle SQVP in non-classic years but do not release them into the market for 8 years after bottling. Bottling and storing a classic vintage carries exactly the same investment and ongoing cost as it would for an SQVP. If the market turns out to be as depressed as Tom suggests it will be in early 09 then the shippers could declare a classic vintage but release none or just a small amount into the market and save the bulk for a time when conditions are better suited to selling it.

I simply don't believe that classic VP income is that critical to the cash-flow of the big boys. There just isn't enough of it to be that important when comared with their other mass market premium styles such as SQVP, LBV and premium ruby. I accept that this is not the same for the smaller producers but the big houses will not be basing their strategies on what is good for their smaller cousins.

The bottom line is, if it is good enough to declare then it should be declared. When to release it is, for me, a separate debate.

...and I haven't seen or heard one report that would make me think it would be a good idea to skip 07 and wait for 08

Derek

[uncle tom]

The late release of some SQ's is specifically focused on meeting the needs of supermarkets; who want freshly labelled bottles in sufficient quantity, and of an age that is sufficiently impressive to the customers as to make them shell out around £15-£20/bottle.

For the wines from the declared vintages, the producers now seem hell bent on getting VP sold and drunk while it's still in nappies; blending approachable wines to the detriment (I fear..) of their long term prospects.

Don't forget that the press releases after the '07 vintage celebrated the performance of grape varieties that make short lived wines..

Hanging on to most of it was not the plan.

Tom