Vintage countdown

[uncle tom]

So, here we go again..!

2010 is a bit special, in that a declaration is clearly wanted from this year, IF the climate is sufficiently benign..

2009 enjoyed a fine vintage, until the weather broke, which was, for the Symingtons; the very last day of harvesting..

The weather was then decidedly rough and unsettled, but also usefully wet, until the 2010 flowering began; at which point the climate appears to have behaved itself, and decent weather has been the norm thereafter.

The current prospect is for a good harvest from a quantity perspective, and while quantity and quality tend to be natural foes in port production, there have been some notable exceptions, where quantity and quality have run hand in hand - such as 1927..

Having had very good reports, and an exceptional cask sample (Malvedos), from 2009; it is clear that 2010 has a very tough act to follow. However, at this early stage; there is nothing to stop this from becoming an excellent vintage.

Tom

[DRT]

Tom,

When did you taste the 2009 Malvedos cask sample? I haven't had the opportunity to taste any 2009s yet so am interested to know what it was like.

Derek

[Andy Velebil]

A big worry right now is odium and mildew. With so much rain over the winter, when the temp goes up it's making it very humid and that is a worry for sure. But as you mentioned, some good weather during flowering, so that was a plus for sure.

[uncle tom]

When did you taste the 2009 Malvedos cask sample? I haven't had the opportunity to taste any 2009s yet so am interested to know what it was like.

In the lodge a couple of weeks ago. Not as perfumed as the '08, but the purity and tannic structure really stood out. A classic, I think.

I also spoke to Dirk, who reported that '09 was an excellent port year. He was less enthused about his table wines however.

Tom

[uncle tom]

June was warm, but wetter than usual; Johnny Symington's VPS report makes fascinating reading (as always..) - but seems a little pessimistic..

http://www.thevintageportsite.com/vinta ... .aspx?pg=6

Tom

[uncle tom]

Weather reports indicate that the intense heat that defines almost every great port vintage has arrived...

..but are the fungal issues under control?

- Anyone had a chance to look at the vines recently?

Tom

[Roy Hersh]

2009 produced fantastic quantities and yields were the highest in possibly a decade.

[uncle tom]

2009 produced fantastic quantities and yields were the highest in possibly a decade

Roy,

Did you mean to say quality rather than quantity?

Tom

[uncle tom]

Well, things have been rather quiet. Conditions are still very hot, but the extreme heat and humidity that must have made any sort of work in the Douro unbearable, seem to have eased slightly.

Thanks to Oscar (http://quevedoportwine.com/) we have our opening report from the front line, and it's looking like a late harvest. Veraison is not yet complete, and potential alcohol levels are lower than in recent years.

Some rain is needed, but there is little prospect before next Wednesday, and even then the forecasters are not agreed as to whether the passing clouds are likely to precipitate. Further afield, the hurricane season is very benign, without a single tropical depression at this point

Elsewhere in the world there is a fair amount of gloom about 2010 - the Californians are already talking about the summer that never was, and some Burgundian growers suffered a grievous amount of vine mortality at the hands of an extreme frost on Dec 20th.

Commentary from Bordeaux always seems focused on the eternal squabbles between the producers and their regulatory bodies, but there seems to be almost a law of omerta when it comes to talking about the upcoming vintage. Does anyone in Bordeaux have an up to date blog on the harvest there?

Tom

[Andy Velebil]

Elsewhere in the world there is a fair amount of gloom about 2010 - the Californians are already talking about the summer that never was,

Tom,
Overall, many parts of California have been relatively cool this summer, one of the coolest I can recall in the Southern California region. The info you mention about gloom here is the fault of many wine publications that don't put out the complete facts. A topic of discussion among my Cali wine friends here.

Like the Douro, the California wine area is vast, actually very very vast, stretching from near Los Angeles all the way up to Humbolt County hundreds of miles away. Like the Douro, California has many micro climates so areas like Napa where things are generally a bit behind schedule, but only by a week or two from normal, to areas like Paso Robles where things are doing fine. Actually many people are happy about the cooler summer as they would like to see Napa Cab's return to their older lower ABV's...but that's another topic.

[uncle tom]

Although Wednesday will be cloudy, it now appears unlikely to rain. Beyond that, the forecasts for the rest of the month indicate cloudless skies, average temperatures and moderate humidity; with little likelihood of any rain.

Whilst that may be a recipe for some raisining and reduction in yield, it looks moderately promising from the quality standpoint; as such conditions should not provoke further fungal attack.

If the early days of September can muster some rain to refresh the vines, and then stay clear for vintage; we could see some sound wines made.

Tom

[Glenn E.]

An interesting blog post by Oscar regarding the effect (if any) that all of the forest fires might have on the vintage: Quevedo Port Wine

[uncle tom]

Interesting. Dew tends to bring smoke down to earth that hasn't blown away, so if there are dews now, and not enough rain to rinse the grapes later; it could have an influence.

However, in moderation, smokey notes are not unpleasant, and in many ways it is quite appealing to have a distinctive signature to the vintage.

Tom

[oscar quevedo]

Weather keeps cooling off but forecasts show a new heat wave for the weekend. No signals of rain yet. It would be helpful not only for irrigating the vines but as Tom points, to rinse the dust.

The risk of fire in the north of Portugal is being reduce, so probably no more fires will occur in the Douro and surrounding areas before harvest. But the number of fires we had in the last 4 weeks will be enough to teach us about the influence of the smoke in the Port Wine.

[uncle tom]

The forecast is certainly looking very settled and dry, although there's an area of rain, currently predicted to hit Bordeaux on Tuesday, that might give some rain on Monday night if it tracks just a little further south than is currently projected.

There is a fair amount of cloud formation south of Cape Verde - the cradle of many hurricanes, and atlantic weather systems; but no cyclonic formations are visible on the satellite photos.

The weather could well remain dry through the first week of September.

Tom

[RonnieRoots]

Hi Oscar,

Are the fires worse now than they were in 2003 and 2005? I remember being in the Douro in 05 when the fires were at their worst and the valley (around Foz Coa) was completely filled with smoke. In those ports it doesn't seem to have a negative effect. Or was there enough rain after the fires in those years to rinse the dust off?

Cheers!
Ronald

[oscar quevedo]

Hi Ronald, this is a good point. In 2003 the total burnt area was 372k ha, while in 2005 117k. This year forecasts point at 100k ha, lower than any of these two years. But in both 2003 and 2005 it rained before the starting of the harvest, helping rinsing the grapes.

[marc j.]

Hey Oscar,

Have you seen any raisining of the grapes? Or possibly, is the ground water suppy sufficent to provide the vines with the needed mositure?

Marc

[uncle tom]

The tail end of the weather system headed for France and the UK now looks likely to make landfall on the northwest corner of Iberia, but while Porto is likely to get rain on Monday and Tuesday, it is less certain as to how much (if any) will clear the mountains and reach the quintas. A light shower or two looks more likely than a soaking.

The cloud mass south of Cape Verde is now creeping west, and while there is still no sign of it becoming cyclonic, it is quite substantial. At this point it looks more likely to be sucked into the Atlantic slingshot and come to europe in 2-3 weeks time; than to be drawn into the American mainland.

If it becomes cyclonic, there's a risk it could be damaging; otherwise, there's a sporting chance of some timely pre-harvest refreshment.

Tom

[uncle tom]

The Douro Insider Report for July has just been published - a must read, as usual..

http://www.thevintageportsite.com/vinta ... .aspx?pg=7

Interesting to contrast Oscar's observations with those of the Symingtons - it appears some areas are running late, while others are slightly early..

..whilst different altitudes have different calendars, it seems a little strange that some quintas appear ahead of their respective norms, while others are behind..

I think someone once observed that the Douro has nine months of winter, and three months of hell - this year is looking true to form!

Tom

[uncle tom]

The odd shower looks fairly likely this afternoon, but there is little chance of anything substantial. Might be enough to rinse some of the smoke off the grapes though..

The Portuguese Meteo forecast reckons on some rain for the 31st - 1st; but this rather depends on Iberia catching the edge of a weather system that otherwise looks set to pass to the north. Accuweather reckons it will stay dry.

The cloud mass I've been tracking for the last few days has now become cyclonic, and has been christened tropical storm Danielle. There's currently no great fury in this system, as it heads slowly towards Bermuda. It still looks unlikely that this system will make landfall on the mainland US, and the storm (or its remnants) will probably reach europe about a week into September.

Behind Danielle can be seen the genesis of another storm, but this is forming further south, and is therefore more likely to eventually find its way into the mainland.

Tom

[uncle tom]

Hmm..

Johnny Symington - Douro insider:

"Veraison came relatively early this year .."

Cynthia, on behalf of Charles Symington - Malvedos blog:

"..pintor – the moment the grape colour begins to change from green to red – was a week later than average, and the latest Charles could call to mind in his career"

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Pintor is simply the Portuguese word for the French Veraison



Tom

[DRT]

It is possible that Charles and Johnny are taking about different quintas in different regions of the Douro. Have you posted a question on these blogs?

[uncle tom]

It is possible that Charles and Johnny are taking about different quintas in different regions of the Douro

To be fair, Charles is focused on Malvedos, while Johnny tackles the Douro as a whole.

Have you posted a question on these blogs

The VPS site has stopped responding to consumer enquiries; but i've made a post on the Malvedos comments blog..

Tom

[uncle tom]

Danielle is getting more feisty, and is pulling to the east much faster than expected..

..more likely now to come on strong into europe..

Tom