Vesuvio sales at Christies

[uncle tom]

I have just searched through Christies London auction results, and transcribed all the sales details for Vesuvio.

Since the first lot was sold on the 20th Jan 1997 (6 x 1991 for £90 + VAT), a total of 1087 bottles of Vesuvio have been sold, almost all in original cases. Only six of the bottles were magnums.

1989 - 43 - 4.0%
1990 - 68 - 6.3%
1991 - 21 - 1.9%
1992 - 181 - 16.7%
1994 - 150 - 15.8%
1995 - 328 - 30.2%
1996 - 13 - 1.2%
1997 - 139 - 12.8%
1998 - 18 - 1.7%
1999 - 6 - 0.6%
2000 - 96 - 8.8%
2001 - 0
2003 - 12 - 1.1%
2004 - 0
2005 - 12 - 1.1%

None of the more recent vintages has made an appearance..

[Alex Bridgeman]

How have the prices of each of the vintages changed over the period you've looked at?

[ajfeather]

Looking at my purchases I am not surprised 1995 was the most popular I picked a few of these cases up over the years at reasonable rates. A nice drop too!

Post 2000 Vesuvio is a lot rarer in the secondary market, I don't know if they are making less or it is selling 'quicker'?

[uncle tom]

How have the prices of each of the vintages changed over the period you've looked at?

A very consistant story - starting high, falling sharply, and now back at where they started, or higher.

The highest price ever paid per bottle was £41.25 for the '94 in January 2002, but in November 2005, the '94 sold for just £18.75/btl. (At other salerooms, V94 is now trading at around £45-£50/btl)

When the '95s first appeared in May 2001, they sold for £18.31/btl, but scored the lowest ever price of £11.02/btl in November 2009.

The overall average price paid was £20.89/btl.

Christies have got into a bad habit of bundling Vesuvio with other ports, or other vintages of Vesuvio; so I don't have much recent data that I can analyse in this manner.

Anyone selling Vesuvio at auction should use an auctioneer who will list each six pack as a separate lot, as this clearly delivers the best prices.

(all prices include duty, VAT where applicable, BP and VAT on BP)

[uncle tom]

Just did a little trawl of Cellartracker, to see the breakdown of people's holdings of Vesuvio

2010 13 0.2%
2009 128 1.9%
2008 18 0.3%
2007 317 4.7%
2006 159 2.4%
2005 319 4.7%
2004 161 2.4%
2003 799 11.9%
2001 94 1.4%
2000 841 12.5%
1999 95 1.4%
1998 356 5.3%
1997 605 9.0%
1996 307 4.6%
1995 594 8.8%
1994 1223 18.1%
1992 308 4.6%
1991 245 3.6%
1990 131 1.9%
1989 28 0.4%

Now, my general impression is that Cellartracker folk are mainly primary market buyers, with a high proportion of participants coming from North America.

If that is correct, then it appears that Vesuvio sales in the US are collapsing..

(Sorry for the bunched up stats - I copied from Excel - it looked fine until I hit 'Submit' ..)

[DRT]

Now, my general impression is that Cellartracker folk are mainly primary market buyers, with a high proportion of participants coming from North America.

If that is correct, then it appears that Vesuvio sales in the US are collapsing..

Or most people started updating CellarTracker and then stopped using it? My CellarTracker inventory is at least four years out of date.

[Christopher]

It would be interesting to see the history of the additions over the years, I am in the same camp as Derek in that I have not updated my account for a few years now and what I can say is the last year I did update was 2006 and I have just under half the total holding for that year in Cellartracker.

I also think that based on the years people own the most of it would suggest Cellartracker clients are buying quite a lot in the secondary market, look at the 94 holding the biggest by a long amount and that is the year that seems to rate very highly and would certainly be the year I am most keen to buy more of.

Thank you though Tom for putting this together - appreciated.

[uncle tom]

Or most people started updating CellarTracker and then stopped using it? My CellarTracker inventory is at least four years out of date.

That's a valid point - I've never uploaded my own inventory, as I have my own database, with various tools that I've written myself.

I think Eric Levine wanted Cellartracker to be a live stock control system that all could use, but I wonder what proportion of his participants actually do?

I've been looking at the holdings of major shippers on CT, and there are some dramatic differences between vintages; for example, 266 bottles of T80 vs 2973 bottles of T77, and only 213 bottles of T75

Does anyone have a database showing production volumes for the major shippers in declared years?

[Glenn E.]

Now, my general impression is that Cellartracker folk are mainly primary market buyers, with a high proportion of participants coming from North America.

What do you mean by primary market?

I don't buy on release, but I do keep my Cellartracker (mostly) up-to-date. Most of my buying is from internet retail, with a small percentage coming from internet auctions.

[Alex Bridgeman]

Primary would mean bought when shipped, either two years after the vintage or on a late release.

[Andy Velebil]

Now, my general impression is that Cellartracker folk are mainly primary market buyers, with a high proportion of participants coming from North America.

What do you mean by primary market?

I don't buy on release, but I do keep my Cellartracker (mostly) up-to-date. Most of my buying is from internet retail, with a small percentage coming from internet auctions.

Most people, in all countries, are primary market buyers. Lets be realistic overall, very few people buy from wine auctions. Auctions are mostly older (post release) higher end stuff which makes up a very small percentage of overall wine sales.

And you're average wine buyer who only keeps a handful of cheap wine bottles at home probably isn't using Cellartracker. Though they should IMO

[g-man]

i havne't used cellartracker in 4 years so my inventory is quite out of date there.

my laptop spreadsheet has my inventory and most up to date.

[Chris Doty]

The highest price ever paid per bottle was £41.25 for the '94 in January 2002, but in November 2005, the '94 sold for just £18.75/btl. (At other salerooms, V94 is now trading at around £45-£50/btl)

(all prices include duty, VAT where applicable, BP and VAT on BP)

FWIW, I bought a case of '94 Vesuvio at auction last month for $40 a bottle (hammer), or ~$54 after BP and state taxes.

Feel pretty good about the execution, but haven't tried any yet to assess storage/etc.

Great wine. Happy to take as many bottles as I can find <$60

[Glenn E.]

Great wine. Happy to take as many bottles as I can find <$60

+1. Wish I could find more at that price!

[g-man]

i did the same before chris. same place same price

[marc j.]

for example, 266 bottles of T80 vs 2973 bottles of T77, and only 213 bottles of T75

I have a feeling that this is related to the collectability of T77 vs. T80/T75 which aren't viewed in the light as some of the more classic bottlings (T77, F77, T70, ect.)

[uncle tom]

I have a feeling that this is related to the collectability of T77 vs. T80/T75

Collectability pushes up price, which in turn reduces consumption; but is it really the case that for every surviving bottle of T75, there are 14 surviving bottles of T77?

T77 trades at around double the price of T75. If doubling the price has that much impact on consumption, there are implications for the release price of new vintages.

Although port has the longest timeline of any wine, the producers ultimately need VP to be drunk at the rate it is produced - there is a limit to the amount people will keep laid down.

[Andy Velebil]

- there is a limit to the amount people will keep laid down.

Tom
I agree. Speaking for myself my storage area is reaching critical mass. I've expanded it three times already and have no desire to get another storage locker and the cost associated with it. So it becomes tough when picking what ports I want to buy to lay down for the future and what to drink now to make room. Though the drinking part is fun lol!

[g-man]

- there is a limit to the amount people will keep laid down.

Tom
I agree. Speaking for myself my storage area is reaching critical mass. I've expanded it three times already and have no desire to get another storage locker and the cost associated with it. So it becomes tough when picking what ports I want to buy to lay down for the future and what to drink now to make room. Though the drinking part is fun lol!

we need a cellar diminishment party!

[marc j.]

I have a feeling that this is related to the collectability of T77 vs. T80/T75

Collectability pushes up price, which in turn reduces consumption; but is it really the case that for every surviving bottle of T75, there are 14 surviving bottles of T77?

T77 trades at around double the price of T75. If doubling the price has that much impact on consumption, there are implications for the release price of new vintages.

Although port has the longest timeline of any wine, the producers ultimately need VP to be drunk at the rate it is produced - there is a limit to the amount people will keep laid down.

It seems to me that many people are looking at T77 as an investment rather than a pop 'n pour like T75. As such there are an inordinate number of bottles laying around in cellars waiting for the big payoff day. Personally, I purchase wine to drink regardless of the producer/vintage. Like Andy, my storage is pushing its limits, even at my vigorous level of consumption. Personally, if I were looking for a long-term investment, T77 might not be my first choice...

[DRT]

...

Tom
I agree.

I never thought we would see the day when that happened