The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
Posted: 02:13 Sun 14 Sep 2014
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Excellent. We'll both be really useful come Friday. Hopefully we won't also be in a really foul mood.DRT wrote:Impressive lineup.
I will be up and watching in my hotel room in London. I will pop down to my local off-license to pick up an appropriate bottle to see me through the night.
It's a safe bet. At least 60% "no". I have it on good authority from Rab McGabe.djewesbury wrote:Excellent. We'll both be really useful come Friday. Hopefully we won't also be in a really foul mood.DRT wrote:Impressive lineup.
I will be up and watching in my hotel room in London. I will pop down to my local off-license to pick up an appropriate bottle to see me through the night.
Indeed. I was in Edinburgh last weekend and was told by a number of people that many of those intending to vote No are keeping silent (or lying) to avoid the venom of those who are of a different view. That is the reason for my confidence in at least a 60/40 victory to No.jdaw1 wrote:I do hope that post-event surveys show that some voted No because of the vehemence of the Yeses, in particular their harassment of those who disagree.
Yes, something about this reminds me of the 2008 US election. Everyone said that it would be too close to call or a McCain victory. Only one analyst, Nate Silver, called it correctly, by looking at the biases of all the polls and studying what all the data from them actually told him. I don't think it'll quite be 60:40 this week but I don't believe either that it's going to be as close as the media continually say it will be. Where is the proper analysis of all this woefully inadequate polling data?DRT wrote:Indeed. I was in Edinburgh last weekend and was told by a number of people that many of those intending to vote No are keeping silent (or lying) to avoid the venom of those who are of a different view. That is the reason for my confidence in at least a 60/40 victory to No.jdaw1 wrote:I do hope that post-event surveys show that some voted No because of the vehemence of the Yeses, in particular their harassment of those who disagree.
I can certainly believe that many "no" voters are keeping their heads down, primarily because the issue seems to be being treated as if it is a "vote yes if you're proud to be Scottish" by many, perhaps deliberately/divisively, rather than about the independence itself. However, I can see the "proud Scottish yes" vote winning the day (rather than a "yes to independence"), so I am less confident in the result.DRT wrote: I was in Edinburgh last weekend and was told by a number of people that many of those intending to vote No are keeping silent (or lying) to avoid the venom of those who are of a different view. That is the reason for my confidence in at least a 60/40 victory to No.
There are some who have diligently analysed the available data and reached a well informed conclusion...djewesbury wrote:Where is the proper analysis of all this woefully inadequate polling data?
If they are, do we have to bail them out at tax-payers expense, or is that just for other types of gamblers? I admit I'm surprised by the margin there.DRT wrote:That is quite a margin in a two horse race. They are seldom wrong.
Innumerate rubbish.DRT wrote:That is quite a margin in a two horse race.
I certainly don't want to attack you on a calculation. I was simply observing that when bookmakers create such a gulf in odds in a two horse race there is very little probability that the outsider will win and the favourite, in such circumstances, very often wins with ease.jdaw1 wrote:Normally distributed. It’s not, of course, very little is, but the approximation isn’t going to mislead.DRT wrote:please define standardly distributed.
If you want to attack, attack the ±5%.
Thank you.
The same issue as the 92 election where people were a little shamefaced about saying to pollsters that they were voting Tory, but they did.PhilW wrote:I can certainly believe that many "no" voters are keeping their heads down, primarily because the issue seems to be being treated as if it is a "vote yes if you're proud to be Scottish" by many, perhaps deliberately/divisively, rather than about the independence itself. However, I can see the "proud Scottish yes" vote winning the day (rather than a "yes to independence"), so I am less confident in the result.DRT wrote: I was in Edinburgh last weekend and was told by a number of people that many of those intending to vote No are keeping silent (or lying) to avoid the venom of those who are of a different view. That is the reason for my confidence in at least a 60/40 victory to No.
Anything currently made by the Symingtons would do.djewesbury wrote:Scottish port importers were many and varied but the bottles are fairly rare now. Shippers gives you obvious choices though; even Taylor and Croft could be said to have Scottish links via various different Robertsons.
The count will begin as with a general election, almost immediately, but depending on the maths there could be no result until 7 am. And I'd be very wary of exit polls.LGTrotter wrote:And does anyone know when the result will be declared? Not sure where exit polls fit into this one either, if there are we could still all get an early night.