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Split from 2005 Declarations due to thread drift. Admin 13/07/07


Jdaw1,

I have to preface this by saying I haven'y got aclue, and I'm probably about to QED that. But...

Pricing in financial markets is consistent with a high probability of nothing worse than a soft landing. The trouble at mill is only in the over-leveraged parts of the credit market. If you care about details, well, ask. But it would be better not to

As clever as Economists, Accountants, Stockbrokers, etc might be, and even though they can point to being right 99% of the time, doesn't the nature of a Stock Market Crash mean that it has caught 99% of people unawares? Everyone knows we're stretched and overheating to some extent. If we knew a Crash was on the cards, surely it wouldn't happen, due to the fact we do know and act accordingly. Or is that whats happening now?

You can just tell me yes or no to that question. I've haven't got a decade to learn, and you haven't got a decade to teach.

Alan

Can I suggest that this moves to Meaningless Drivel before it really gets going?

Derek

My word! Is it a sunny day? The Grand Worship Caretaker of the Administrator Keys, asking, rather than just doing it?

Feel free. Although for me, Yes or No was the end of my interest. Others may have resulting questions, so Relocate Your Head Off and delete this one.

Alan

I leave Moderation to The Creator

You Prize Chump!!!

Now we really have got a thread of Meaningless Drivel!

OK, where do you want the cut? I will go and do a split in my Dr Evil guise.

Alex,

I've now edited my question to include Julians point which raised my question. So send that question of mine to the Drivel Location, and then delete all the resulting Drivel. Hope that makes sense.

I think cut after jdaw and move Corky's question to a new thread in MD, linked back to here.

jdaw's post cold be editted to note the amendment to the thread and point to the new one

All the dross can be deleted, including this, which is my 500th post

Derek
Assistant Creator

Alex,

Will you hurry up so that Derek can relax...

I just want to see what happens when an Assistant Creator is posting to a thread that The Creator is trying to cut in half and relocate

Conky wrote:I have to preface this by saying I haven'y got aclue, and I'm probably about to QED that. But...

Pricing in financial markets is consistent with a high probability of nothing worse than a soft landing. The trouble at mill is only in the over-leveraged parts of the credit market. If you care about details, well, ask. But it would be better not to

As clever as Economists, Accountants, Stockbrokers, etc might be, and even though they can point to being right 99% of the time, doesn't the nature of a Stock Market Crash mean that it has caught 99% of people unawares? Everyone knows we're stretched and overheating to some extent. If we knew a Crash was on the cards, surely it wouldn't happen, due to the fact we do know and act accordingly. Or is that whats happening now?

Yes, unexpected things happen. But we can assess from markets what are the knowns (loosely, in this context, shape of the forward $Libor curve and the recent performance of stockmarkets), and the known unknowns (implied volatility on same). Both of those measures suggest that the people with the money think a major downtown to be less probable than usual.

Unless you know better (which I sometimes do!), a sensible course is to assume whatever markets are implying.