Jdaw1,
I have to preface this by saying I haven'y got aclue, and I'm probably about to QED that. But...
As clever as Economists, Accountants, Stockbrokers, etc might be, and even though they can point to being right 99% of the time, doesn't the nature of a Stock Market Crash mean that it has caught 99% of people unawares? Everyone knows we're stretched and overheating to some extent. If we knew a Crash was on the cards, surely it wouldn't happen, due to the fact we do know and act accordingly. Or is that whats happening now?Pricing in financial markets is consistent with a high probability of nothing worse than a soft landing. The trouble at mill is only in the over-leveraged parts of the credit market. If you care about details, well, ask. But it would be better not to
You can just tell me yes or no to that question. I've haven't got a decade to learn, and you haven't got a decade to teach.
Alan