Predicting the future

[WineLoverPT]

The background to this question is based on my recent review of a 2005 Quinta do Portal...
http://www.theportforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=8615

I opened this one in order to determine whether or not to put some more in the cellar "for the future".

However, I'm sitting here thinking, well, basically, that I have almost no idea what I'm looking, smelling, tasting for in order to make a determination as to where this wine might be heading.
It's not even 10 years old yet, so I'm thinking it's very young right now - but that might not necessarily mean it's going to get better (or is that always too young?).
If I do decide get some more, am I trying the next one in 2 years, 5 years, or 10 years?
It's not expensive (30 euros a pop), but instead of 4 of those I could get a "known" good bottle for 120 euros.

To add to the confusion, VintaePort.se said, in late 2012...
"Medium body. Rather mature. Mint in flavour. Complex and a possible long runner. Very promising finish but this port was much better last year."
which is, to say the least, somewhat contradictory.

If anyone has any insight for a newbie such as myself to help me predict the future of a port about which I can find very little information, I'd be much appreciative - maybe in 20 years time I can be proudly bringing my 2005 to a "2005 horizontal".

[Glenn E.]

I don't even try to predict the future, as I doubt I'm any good at it. My ratings are (usually) just from how it tastes at the time of the tasting.

I have no idea how anyone could predict the longevity of a just-released Port, especially considering how much the industry has changed in the last 20-30 years. A newly released Port today is a vastly different beast than one released 20 years ago. How can one possibly compare experiences and come up with any sort of reliable prediction?

[WineLoverPT]

I was kind of hoping there were indicants of probability - surely there must be?

For example, everyone seems to be saying the 2011 is really excellent, and that most of it is really for 20+ years hence.
Now, those experts (add parentheses if desired) are obviously tasting, smelling, or seeing something.
Aren't they?
I'm just wondering what that something is.
Is it just a lifetime's experience - remembering how that Warre's '85 tasted back in '85, and, tasting it in 2012, and deducing things?
But even if that's what's going on, it's a mental process of evaluating sense inputs - so what is it they're evaluating?

That's what I was wondering.

[uncle tom]

Historically, writers on port most often make asses of themselves when they try to predict drinking windows.

In practice, 90% of vintage ports show better at 40yrs than they do at 30yrs, and only the most forward vintages show better at 40 than at 50, although personal taste and preference is a factor.

The 2005 vintage is characterised by great depth and intensity, and I'm pretty confident that well cellared bottles will be mostly very much alive fifty years hence.

The tasting note referenced is typical of a good but currently closed vintage port, awakened from its slumbers indecently early.

Stock up, lay down, and leave for your kids to enjoy..!

[WineLoverPT]

... and leave for your kids to enjoy..!

Now, if I only had kids ...

But thanks for the answer - I shall get some more, which I will, by necessity, god's willing, drink early, but not this early.

[LGTrotter]

... and leave for your kids to enjoy..!

Now, if I only had kids ... .

Even better, you can leave it to somebody who definitely likes port, rather than feeling obliged to give it to someone who will shove it in the first auction advertised after you curl up your toes.

To the point about predicting the future, trust your own judgement. It is likely to be as reliable as anybody else's guess. I used to follow the advice of various 'experts' and seem to have overpaid for wines that ain't all that great.

Glenn's point about how much has changed in the way port is made is spot on. Nobody was quite sure how wines would develop in the days when they were made in the same way for generations, with all the recent developments it would be foolish to try.

This forum and 'for the love of port' are very useful in giving a wider range of opinion about how vintages are developing. I have found several of the regular writers of tasting notes on this forum chime with my own opinions and so I tend to read their tasting notes before buying a wine.

[Alex Bridgeman]

Port goes through many phases in it's life, and my experience is that it does not just shut down (which means to lose its balance between fruit, acidity and tannin) during the traditional teenage years, but also does something similar in its later life. A good recent example being Taylor 1985 which we were very down on about 5 years ago and which has now turned into a lovely mature port that is drinking very nicely today.

So that makes it really tough to predict the future. However, you can do it. What you are looking for is a balance (or the ability for the wine to develop a balance) between fruit, tannin and acidity. Over time the fruit will fade, sweeten and mature; the tannins will soften and eventually vanish; the acidity will remain and be the fundamental support for the sugar and fruit. Balance between these is vital for a port that will be enjoyable in 50 years time. You don't want a port that is all sugary fruit and no acidity as that will just be too overwhelming. Neither do you want a port that is all acidity and no fruit - it's cheaper to drink vinegar if that's the style you enjoy.

When tasting a very young (ie latest release) vintage port I am looking for a huge amount of fruit, powerful but balanced acidity and tannins that provide a very firm or overwhelming grip on the late palate or aftertaste. This will give me the confidence that the port will grow and develop in the bottle over the next few decades.

With teenage or near teenage port (like your 2005), I find it much more difficult. I expect the port to be out of balance, but I do not have the experience or knowledge to know how the port will recover and how well balanced it will be in another 10 years. I can make some educated guesses - I would expect plenty of all three components in a good port at the age of 9-10 years, but I would not expect them to deliver together and to provide an integrated and complex drink on the nose, palate or aftertaste. It would be pure guesswork to try to predict how they will change in the timing of their arrival on the palate with another 10 years in the cellar, but it is inevitable that they would. And almost certainly they will change for the better.

I guess I would summarise to say that if you drink a 2005 today and enjoy it, you can be pretty confident that in 10-20 years you will still enjoy it and probably enjoy it more. On the other hand, giving up 4 bottles of future port for 1 bottle of known and certain quality port which is also known to have the ability to last for another 10-30 years is the dilemma we all struggle with every day...and those 1970 ports are only going to get more expensive when the babies of that year celebrate their 50th birthdays in 2020.

[WineLoverPT]

Port goes through many phases in it's life, and my experience is that it does not just shut down ....
and lots of other cool stuff.

Thanks for that - I think that's what I needed to know - now I just (?simply?) have to develop the discernment in taste to detect those things - I think it's going to (sadly ) take a lot of practice.

Regarding the 2005 Quinta do Portal - I was all set to get a couple more - if only to taste again in 5 and 10 years to feel/taste/smell the difference and thereby educate myself - at 30 euros a pop it wasn't going to break the bank.
I went to the supermarket - there they were - a couple on the shelves still. But no price label. I took a bottle to the scanner - "Unknown product" it said - I took one to a saleslady, and she took it to the tills - 10 minutes later - "Unknown product" - so, even though I knew the price, told them I knew the price since I'd bought one before, they were not able to sell them to me!
Now they are no longer on the shelves - I guess that's what they call "destiny".
Of course, that 60 euros has already been deducted (in my head) from my bank account, so I'm looking for an alternative target.

[jdaw1]

Of course, that 60 euros has already been deducted (in my head) from my bank account, so I'm looking for an alternative target.

Ahh, that problem. Reading this thread will allow your to buy lots of even better Port.

[LGTrotter]

The other danger with buying cheapish port is that one night when looking for a solution to a terrible thirst you will find yourself drinking it before the five or ten years has elapsed. I get terrible thirsts more frequently than twice every five years. But then, I may be thirstier than others.

[Alex Bridgeman]

The other danger with buying cheapish port is that one night when looking for a solution to a terrible thirst you will find yourself drinking it before the five or ten years has elapsed. I get terrible thirsts more frequently than twice every five years. But then, I may be thirstier than others.

But this just tells me you have an insufficiency of bottles. With a sufficiency of bottles your problem when you get a thirst is to decide what to open in a reasonable amount of time. I have been known to need rescuing from my wine cabinet when thirsty guests have required further bottles - my better half felt that 45 minutes for the decision was excessive.

[LGTrotter]

The other danger with buying cheapish port is that one night when looking for a solution to a terrible thirst you will find yourself drinking it before the five or ten years has elapsed. I get terrible thirsts more frequently than twice every five years. But then, I may be thirstier than others.

But this just tells me you have an insufficiency of bottles. With a sufficiency of bottles your problem when you get a thirst is to decide what to open in a reasonable amount of time. I have been known to require rescuing from my wine cabinet when thirsty guests have required further bottles - my better half felt that 45 minutes for the decision was excessive.

The problem of not having enough port is one that I acknowledge freely. However I am aware that buying more has not yet slaked this need. On another thread WS1 was worried about being down to his last 15 cases of 1970, which is a clear demonstration that this concern does not subside the further you climb the tree.

As to staring at my wine collection like a hypnotised chicken I find it amazing how the time slips by. I wonder if 45 minutes had more to do with the company you were returning to than selecting the right bottle. Or had you nodded off?

My last word at the moment on predicting the future comes from William Younger; "Wine suffers a heaving birth. It has a rough, groping childhood. It develops into adolescence. Then if it does not sicken, it matures; and in this it is almost human since it does not mature according to a fixed rule but according to the law of its particular and individual personality"

He was talking about wine but I think it very applicable to port.

[Alex Bridgeman]

The other danger with buying cheapish port is that one night when looking for a solution to a terrible thirst you will find yourself drinking it before the five or ten years has elapsed. I get terrible thirsts more frequently than twice every five years. But then, I may be thirstier than others.

But this just tells me you have an insufficiency of bottles. With a sufficiency of bottles your problem when you get a thirst is to decide what to open in a reasonable amount of time. I have been known to require rescuing from my wine cabinet when thirsty guests have required further bottles - my better half felt that 45 minutes for the decision was excessive.

The problem of not having enough port is one that I acknowledge freely. However I am aware that buying more has not yet slaked this need. On another thread WS1 was worried about being down to his last 15 cases of 1970, which is a clear demonstration that this concern does not subside the further you climb the tree.

As to staring at my wine collection like a hypnotised chicken I find it amazing how the time slips by. I wonder if 45 minutes had more to do with the company you were returning to than selecting the right bottle.

A very shrewd observation, but I cannot possibly comment further.

Or had you nodded off?

No, that was when the parents-in-law came round for lunch on New Year's Day, after a rather indulged celebration of New Year's Eve.

My last word at the moment on predicting the future comes from William Younger; "Wine suffers a heaving birth. It has a rough, groping childhood. It develops into adolescence. Then if it does not sicken, it matures; and in this it is almost human since it does not mature according to a fixed rule but according to the law of its particular and individual personality"

He was talking about wine but I think it very applicable to port.

And a very apt quote that is. I thoroughly agree with him.

[LGTrotter]

A further thought; I think much can be told about the future of a particular wine if we consider the architecture of a wine. Too often the basics are overlooked and we consider the unimportant fripperies, the wainscotting, the architraves. What of the bricks and mortar? Ask yourself with each port; does this have a firm foundation? (n.b. two 't's).