The 2014 Harvest

[jdaw1]

May I move this into The 2014 Harvest?

[uncle tom]

May I move this into The 2014 Harvest?

That thread seemed to get have got very sidetracked, so I thought better to start afresh...

..but up to you!

[jdaw1]

Above three posts merged into this thread by jdaw1.

[DRT]

Possibly the wettest winter in the Douro for eighty years..

http://quevedoportwine.com/very-wet-win ... 4-harvest/

I am sure that someone in the trade once told me that a wet winter pays dividends one harvest after the event - so, using that logic, the harvest in 2015 would benefit from the 2013/14 wet winter. I have no idea whether or not that is true.

[uncle tom]

Everything seems to be going very smoothly so far this season - early flowering and plenty of groundwater to see the vines through the summer.

And the forecast for the rest of June is for a cool spot with a drop of rain this weekend, followed by slightly higher than average temperatures.

[Alex Bridgeman]

I heard yesterday that there was quite a lot of rain last week, right in the middle of flowering. This is likely to have damaged the flowers, thus reducing the overall crop size (which is not necessarily a bad thing from a quality point of view) and has created ideal conditions for oidium to set in.

[Chris Doty]

I'd be very surprised if 2014 is *NOT* declared. I guess that means they won't be declaring 2015 (and usually they seem to like factors of 5), but I sense a declaration in the air.

Low yields would certainly help make their case to the market that this requires attention in lieu / addition to 2011 (which will certainly prove superior).

woo woo
chris

*importantly edited*

[uncle tom]

I'd be very surprised if 2014 is declared. I guess that means they won't be declaring 2015 (and usually they seem to like factors of 5), but I sense a declaration in the air.

2011 sold so well, there is a discernible hunger for another declaration. In hindsight, the producers probably wish they'd made a lot more '11 than they did.

Low yields would certainly help make their case to the market that this requires attention in lieu / addition to 2011 (which will certainly prove superior).

I have a lot of confidence in the '11s, but I wouldn't predict that '14 couldn't be even better!

[uncle tom]

Update..

Fruit set was affected by cold humid weather. The predicted size of the crop is lower than last year and the long term average.

That's the bad news. Otherwise things are looking good. The last six weeks have been slightly cooler than average with well spaced rainfall. The immediate prospect is for a few days of intense heat - something that helps define a classic vintage.

Oscar tells me: "in terms of quality there is no reason not to expect a great vintage"

Obviously the weather can play havoc over the next six weeks, but the outlook is reassuring at this point. The Atlantic hurricane season has only produced two named storms so far this year, with nothing of note brewing, which is quite unusual, and rather at odds with the edicts of the climate change doomsters..

[djewesbury]

The Atlantic hurricane season has only produced two named storms so far this year, with nothing of note brewing, which is quite unusual, and rather at odds with the edicts of the climate change doomsters..

Not really at odds. 'Climate' is a measure of something that extends across a much longer period of time than one half of one year. It isn't the same as 'weather'; it's about long-term shifts, and the long-term data show that climate change is definitely happening, whatever it's caused by. Within any pattern there will always be outliers (a less wet season, for example), and their could be any number of explanations for this.. But the 'freak' occurrences are now happening far more often than they used to (ask Owen how the Levels were looking a few months back). The winemakers in Mosel and Rheingau certainly seemed to think so when they talked about it last week anyway – a number of them attribute a real change in the style of the wines over the last 20 to 30 years to generally warmer conditions, year on year. Needless to say it was pouring while we were there!

[uncle tom]

But the 'freak' occurrences are now happening far more often than they used to (ask Owen how the Levels were looking a few months back).

I think this is a bit of an urban myth.

Take the ways of measuring weather - wettest, driest, hottest, coldest, windiest - and the choice of time frame - hour, day, week, month, season, year - then multiply by the thousands of geographical locations on the planet, and you end up with a fraction of a million weather stats. Bearing in mind that most of the data has been collected for less than two centuries, it is entirely to be expected that each year will throw up a thousand or so all-time record weather events - routinely dubbed as 'freak' weather by the press.

As for the Somerset levels, that had little to do with abnormal weather and everything to do with incompetant government ministers thinking it was a good idea to stop dredging the rivers..

[djewesbury]

There seem to be a lot of hailstorms in Western Europe in late summer these days. The article Mike posted about Burgundy (apologies, on Tapatalk so not practical to link) mentioned that they'd had very nasty, sharp hailstorms late in summer for the past few years and these are causing havoc. Did Oscar mention whether this is an increased problem in the Douro?

[uncle tom]

Did Oscar mention whether this is an increased problem in the Douro?

Hail is a perennial menace to vineyards. There was a report of hail earlier this year in the Douro which I checked out with Oscar. He told me it was a localised event near Alijo, and mostly affected the same quintas that were hit two years ago.

There was a very serious hailstorm in the early summer of 2006 that led to headlines of 'port harvest destroyed' - it was certainly badly damaged.

[Andy Velebil]

Did Oscar mention whether this is an increased problem in the Douro?

Hail is a perennial menace to vineyards. There was a report of hail earlier this year in the Douro which I checked out with Oscar. He told me it was a localised event near Alijo, and mostly affected the same quintas that were hit two years ago.

There was a very serious hailstorm in the early summer of 2006 that led to headlines of 'port harvest destroyed' - it was certainly badly damaged.

Yup, summer hail seems to be a somewhat regular happening in the Douro. Thankfully it seems to be sporadic. 2006 was ugly depending on where your vineyard was. As some got hit hard and some next door didn't get hit at all, or very little. IIRC, Vale d. Maria was one of the harder hit ones in 2006 and suffered lots of damage. I was there that year and saw the damage first hand, it was quite sad.

[djewesbury]

Did Oscar mention whether this is an increased problem in the Douro?

Hail is a perennial menace to vineyards. There was a report of hail earlier this year in the Douro which I checked out with Oscar. He told me it was a localised event near Alijo, and mostly affected the same quintas that were hit two years ago.

There was a very serious hailstorm in the early summer of 2006 that led to headlines of 'port harvest destroyed' - it was certainly badly damaged.

Yup, summer hail seems to be a somewhat regular happening in the Douro. Thankfully it seems to be sporadic. 2006 was ugly depending on where your vineyard was. As some got hit hard and some next door didn't get hit at all, or very little. IIRC, Vale d. Maria was one of the harder hit ones in 2006 and suffered lots of damage. I was there that year and saw the damage first hand, it was quite sad.

I'm even further away from Portugal here in Berlin than I am when I'm in Belfast, but I guess being on the same landmass I'm more conscious of the weather across the continent right now. There was a sudden and very heavy hailstorm here this afternoon and when I look at the weather maps in the papers or on TV they show a LOT of unseasonal rain, not just here way up north but a good deal further south too. I hope what sounds like an already diminished harvest isn't further depleted by some late storms.. Thankfully we seem to be missing out on the annual flooding for the moment, as Tom said. Fingers crossed it stays that way.

[uncle tom]

unseasonal rain

If you look here:

http://www.weather-and-climate.com/aver ... in,Germany

You will see that August is the second wettest month of the year in Berlin, with average rainfall levels that are over 50% higher than the winter months..

[Roy Hersh]

Yes, 1924 was declared. but 2011 was the first year ending in a one to be generally declared, ever..

Not true. 1851 was too.

[Andy Velebil]

Yes, 1924 was declared. but 2011 was the first year ending in a one to be generally declared, ever..

Not true. 1851 was too.

But was it truly declared? Or was it like a lot of houses back then who seemingly made a "VP" in just about every year that was at least decent?

When exactly did the "classic declaration" as we know it today really start?

[DRT]

Yes, 1924 was declared. but 2011 was the first year ending in a one to be generally declared, ever..

Not true. 1851 was too.

But was it truly declared? Or was it like a lot of houses back then who seemingly made a "VP" in just about every year that was at least decent?

When exactly did the "classic declaration" as we know it today really start?

I suspect it is similar to the ancient and noble tradition of declaring on St George's Day, which has been going on since at least the mid 1980s

[Andy Velebil]

Yes, 1924 was declared. but 2011 was the first year ending in a one to be generally declared, ever..

Not true. 1851 was too.

But was it truly declared? Or was it like a lot of houses back then who seemingly made a "VP" in just about every year that was at least decent?

When exactly did the "classic declaration" as we know it today really start?

I suspect it is similar to the ancient and noble tradition of declaring on St George's Day, which has been going on since at least the mid 1980s

Oh yes, that tradition. Thank you I almost forgot

[jdaw1]

Consistent with the forecast made almost eight months ago at the top of this thread, Graham’s has now written A Very Good Year In The Making.

(And an excellent article. Not puff salesmanship, just professionally delivered fact-rich clean prose. Me like.)

[uncle tom]

Wet winter, crop yield down below average due to issues at flowering/fruit set, summer temperatures not overly high..

A similar story to 1963 and 1994 - so far..

- And very nice to see the Malvedos site return to good factual reportage!

[uncle tom]

Reports tell me that a little pre-harvest rain is needed to freshen things up, and this looks set to arrive over the next few days. The only worry is that the forecast is for thundery conditions, which increases the risk of hail.

After that, the forecasts are looking very settled and benign. The Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet so far, with nothing of note currently brewing. There is therefore a good prospect of the port harvest coming in under optimal conditions.

[Andy Velebil]

Reports are of rain the past couple days. Not sure exactly how much. Hopefully it stops and gets sunny again. To much rain right now is not good.

[Alex Bridgeman]

I've just taken a look at the BBC 5-day forecast for the Iberian Peninsula. It's showing alternating days of rain and sun. Could be a challenge this harvest.