The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Organise events to meet up and drink Port.
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djewesbury
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The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by djewesbury »

I will be staying up to watch the results come in, and I have prepared myself an appropriate tasting, comprising of six bottlings from the Scotch Malt Whisky Society's outturn:
Image Image

If you are also going to be in front of your TV that night, please join me and tell me what you're drinking.
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DRT
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by DRT »

Impressive lineup.

I will be up and watching in my hotel room in London. I will pop down to my local off-license to pick up an appropriate bottle to see me through the night.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
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djewesbury
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by djewesbury »

DRT wrote:Impressive lineup.

I will be up and watching in my hotel room in London. I will pop down to my local off-license to pick up an appropriate bottle to see me through the night.
Excellent. We'll both be really useful come Friday. Hopefully we won't also be in a really foul mood.
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DRT
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by DRT »

djewesbury wrote:
DRT wrote:Impressive lineup.

I will be up and watching in my hotel room in London. I will pop down to my local off-license to pick up an appropriate bottle to see me through the night.
Excellent. We'll both be really useful come Friday. Hopefully we won't also be in a really foul mood.
It's a safe bet. At least 60% "no". I have it on good authority from Rab McGabe.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
PhilW
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by PhilW »

That's quite a selection. I picked up another bottle of the Balvenie Caribbean cask today, since Sainsbury's have it reduced at the moment, so I'll either be celebrating the decision to stay, or toasting all the best for their decision to go forward independently.
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jdaw1
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by jdaw1 »

djewesbury wrote:Image Image
Is the X to indicate a choice, or a negative choice?

If it is a No, I do hope that post-event surveys show that some voted No because of the vehemence of the Yeses, in particular their harassment of those who disagree.
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djewesbury
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by djewesbury »

The X is primarily a ballot paper mark but it is also, happily, an inverted saltire (albeit one in grey and white). You may know by now which way I lean on this issue (clue: Ian Paisley used to like this word) but how you choose to read the symbology of this placemat is a matter for you as reader to decide.
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djewesbury
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The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by djewesbury »

I also happen to think that Gordon Brown wrote an excellent piece in yesterday's Grauniad explaining why the UK is the best vehicle that citizens have if they want to be able to direct, or influence, the extra-territorial forces shaping our society today.
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DRT
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by DRT »

jdaw1 wrote:I do hope that post-event surveys show that some voted No because of the vehemence of the Yeses, in particular their harassment of those who disagree.
Indeed. I was in Edinburgh last weekend and was told by a number of people that many of those intending to vote No are keeping silent (or lying) to avoid the venom of those who are of a different view. That is the reason for my confidence in at least a 60/40 victory to No.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
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djewesbury
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by djewesbury »

DRT wrote:
jdaw1 wrote:I do hope that post-event surveys show that some voted No because of the vehemence of the Yeses, in particular their harassment of those who disagree.
Indeed. I was in Edinburgh last weekend and was told by a number of people that many of those intending to vote No are keeping silent (or lying) to avoid the venom of those who are of a different view. That is the reason for my confidence in at least a 60/40 victory to No.
Yes, something about this reminds me of the 2008 US election. Everyone said that it would be too close to call or a McCain victory. Only one analyst, Nate Silver, called it correctly, by looking at the biases of all the polls and studying what all the data from them actually told him. I don't think it'll quite be 60:40 this week but I don't believe either that it's going to be as close as the media continually say it will be. Where is the proper analysis of all this woefully inadequate polling data?
I am delighted to hear that McGabe has today said that he will not call for endless repeated referendums if he loses. (NB: referendums. Not referenda. It's an English word.)
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PhilW
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by PhilW »

DRT wrote: I was in Edinburgh last weekend and was told by a number of people that many of those intending to vote No are keeping silent (or lying) to avoid the venom of those who are of a different view. That is the reason for my confidence in at least a 60/40 victory to No.
I can certainly believe that many "no" voters are keeping their heads down, primarily because the issue seems to be being treated as if it is a "vote yes if you're proud to be Scottish" by many, perhaps deliberately/divisively, rather than about the independence itself. However, I can see the "proud Scottish yes" vote winning the day (rather than a "yes to independence"), so I am less confident in the result.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by DRT »

djewesbury wrote:Where is the proper analysis of all this woefully inadequate polling data?
There are some who have diligently analysed the available data and reached a well informed conclusion...
Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 17.37.39.png
Screen Shot 2014-09-14 at 17.37.39.png (44.35 KiB) Viewed 20283 times
That is quite a margin in a two horse race. They are seldom wrong.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
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djewesbury
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by djewesbury »

Crikey!
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PhilW
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by PhilW »

DRT wrote:That is quite a margin in a two horse race. They are seldom wrong.
If they are, do we have to bail them out at tax-payers expense, or is that just for other types of gamblers? ;) I admit I'm surprised by the margin there.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by jdaw1 »

DRT wrote:That is quite a margin in a two horse race.
Innumerate rubbish.

Odds of 1/4 and 3/1 imply probabilities of 80% and 25% (the total exceeding 100% by the bookies’ profit). So divide by 1.05 to get implied probabilities of 76% and 24%.

Let’s assume that the Yes and No votes are normally distributed, with a standard deviation of ±5% (this σ having been guessed by me). So if the expected outcome were 53.6% : 46.4%, with that uncertainty, the probability of a Yes would indeed be about 76%. But 53.6% : 46.4% is quite a small margin.

= 50 + 5 * NORMSINV( 1 / (1+(1+1/4)/(1+3)) )
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by DRT »

jdaw1 wrote:
DRT wrote:please define standardly distributed.
Normally distributed. It’s not, of course, very little is, but the approximation isn’t going to mislead.

If you want to attack, attack the ±5%.
I certainly don't want to attack you on a calculation. I was simply observing that when bookmakers create such a gulf in odds in a two horse race there is very little probability that the outsider will win and the favourite, in such circumstances, very often wins with ease.
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jdaw1
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by jdaw1 »

Some posts moved to Lies, Damned Lies and Meaningless Drivel by jdaw1.
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djewesbury
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by djewesbury »

jdaw1 wrote:Some posts moved to Lies, Damned Lies and Meaningless Drivel by jdaw1.
Thank you.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by LGTrotter »

PhilW wrote:
DRT wrote: I was in Edinburgh last weekend and was told by a number of people that many of those intending to vote No are keeping silent (or lying) to avoid the venom of those who are of a different view. That is the reason for my confidence in at least a 60/40 victory to No.
I can certainly believe that many "no" voters are keeping their heads down, primarily because the issue seems to be being treated as if it is a "vote yes if you're proud to be Scottish" by many, perhaps deliberately/divisively, rather than about the independence itself. However, I can see the "proud Scottish yes" vote winning the day (rather than a "yes to independence"), so I am less confident in the result.
The same issue as the 92 election where people were a little shamefaced about saying to pollsters that they were voting Tory, but they did.

Not being much into spirits I am at a loss what to drink. There are the Scottish port shippers, or at least of Scottish origin.
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djewesbury
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by djewesbury »

Scottish port importers were many and varied but the bottles are fairly rare now. Shippers gives you obvious choices though; even Taylor and Croft could be said to have Scottish links via various different Robertsons.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by DRT »

djewesbury wrote:Scottish port importers were many and varied but the bottles are fairly rare now. Shippers gives you obvious choices though; even Taylor and Croft could be said to have Scottish links via various different Robertsons.
Anything currently made by the Symingtons would do.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by AW77 »

Sandeman's (I hope the apostrophe is correct in this case) has Scottish roots as well. So you could even have a Sherry (or stick to port).
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by LGTrotter »

And does anyone know when the result will be declared? Not sure where exit polls fit into this one either, if there are we could still all get an early night.
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djewesbury
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The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by djewesbury »

LGTrotter wrote:And does anyone know when the result will be declared? Not sure where exit polls fit into this one either, if there are we could still all get an early night.
The count will begin as with a general election, almost immediately, but depending on the maths there could be no result until 7 am. And I'd be very wary of exit polls.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014

Post by DRT »

I suspect we will know in roughly the same timescales as a general election. The Highlands and Islands could drag into Friday but there is no one there so that doesn't matter.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
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