ThePortForum.com

LGTrotter wrote:21 units a week with 2 days off a week to boot. I am sure that we can all respect that.

jdaw1 wrote:The BBC, in a misleading titled article entitled Michael Mosley: The truth about alcohol, denies that there is a truth.

Michael Mosley, quoting a Canadian wonk in the story above, wrote:A man drinking three to four units a day increases his risk of developing prostate cancer by 23%.

DRT wrote:I agree with Daniel, and that is not something I ever admit to easily.

LGTrotter wrote:but is statistically significant.

jdaw1 wrote:Or, as medical statistician Ken MacRae used to say, “if you torture the data enough it will say anything you want”.

DRT wrote:137/100000 is a 0.00137% chance of dying.

168/100000 is a 0.00168% chance of dying.

That doesn't feel like a statistically valid increase in risk. If rounded to two decimal places both are 0.00%

djewesbury wrote:Am I dying or not? The statistical likelihood of that happening appears not to have changed.

Cheers.

jdaw1 wrote:Few die of it.

LGTrotter wrote:I wonder if it is a primary cancer that then spreads to other, more important organs which is the thing that polishes you off.

LGTrotter wrote:I will always keep a pair of non-latex about me in case you change your mind.

djewesbury wrote:That's the sort of statistic I simply don't believe is true. I can't understand how it possibly could be. A 23% increase in risk is a concept that's surely incalculable, without quantifying what each individual's risk was beforehand. Even if it's true, it's meaningless. If my risk before a drink is calculated as 0.034%, I'll be perfectly happy with a 23% increase in that risk.

DRT wrote:"The crude mortality rate shows that there are 35 prostate cancer deaths for every 100,000 males in the UK."

That is not 2%. It is 0.035%. Am I missing something?

djewesbury wrote:Derek is innumerate.

PhilW wrote:According to the Office for National Statistics in 2014 there were 245142 male deaths of which 3682 were due to prostate cancer;
3682/245142 is almost exactly 1.5%.

djewesbury wrote:

PhilW wrote:According to the Office for National Statistics in 2014 there were 245142 male deaths of which 3682 were due to prostate cancer;
3682/245142 is almost exactly 1.5%.

We already established that the figure quoted was not a percentage of all male deaths, but of males in the UK.

Glenn E. wrote:

djewesbury wrote:

PhilW wrote:According to the Office for National Statistics in 2014 there were 245142 male deaths of which 3682 were due to prostate cancer;
3682/245142 is almost exactly 1.5%.

We already established that the figure quoted was not a percentage of all male deaths, but of males in the UK.

Nevertheless, 3,682 != 10,000.

So 6,318 women die of prostate cancer in the UK every year?

PhilW wrote:According to the Office for National Statistics in 2014 there were 245142 male deaths of which 3682 were due to prostate cancer

PhilW wrote:According to the Office for National Statistics in 2014 there were 245142 male deaths of which 3682 were due to prostate cancer.

LGTrotter wrote:

PhilW wrote:According to the Office for National Statistics in 2014 there were 245142 male deaths of which 3682 were due to prostate cancer

I can't see this stat on the page you have linked to. Could you point out where it is? Apologies for my blindness.

The other thing I find curious is that the cancer research numbers reference the ONS.

But I have so much to puzzle about. Such as why did I want 'Wine Journeys' by Stuart Oliver for Christmas? It has just arrived from America and I now have no idea what I wanted to read it for. It's quite good though.

AHB wrote:I read in a paper today (yesterday?) that drinking a glass of red wine 3 times a week and eating citrus fruit and berries prevents all erective dysfunction forever.

The BBC, in an article entitled [url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36718347]E. coli outbreak: salad may be to blame[/url], wrote:An outbreak of E. Coli affecting more than 100 UK people could be linked to eating contaminated mixed salad leaves, public health officials say.

To date, 109 people are known to have caught the bug - 102 in England, six in Wales and one in Scotland.

South-west England has been worst hit.

E. coli O157 infection can cause a range of symptoms, from mild diarrhoea to bloody diarrhoea with severe abdominal pain.

Public Health England says it has triggered heightened surveillance and is carefully monitoring the situation across the UK.

Although the cause of the infection is not absolutely certain, preliminary investigations show many of the people affected ate salad, including rocket leaves, prior to getting sick.

jdaw1 wrote:

The BBC, in an article entitled [url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-36718347]E. coli outbreak: salad may be to blame[/url], wrote:An outbreak of E. Coli affecting more than 100 UK people could be linked to eating contaminated mixed salad leaves, public health officials say.

To date, 109 people are known to have caught the bug - 102 in England, six in Wales and one in Scotland.

South-west England has been worst hit.

E. coli O157 infection can cause a range of symptoms, from mild diarrhoea to bloody diarrhoea with severe abdominal pain.

Public Health England says it has triggered heightened surveillance and is carefully monitoring the situation across the UK.

Although the cause of the infection is not absolutely certain, preliminary investigations show many of the people affected ate salad, including rocket leaves, prior to getting sick.

TLW wrote:My grandfather did not drink alcohol, and he ate vegetables frequently.

TLW wrote:He is dead

TLW wrote:and I will not make those mistakes.