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Not sure exactly how much.

10mm reported at Vila Real, so hopefully not too much.

The weather forecasts have deteriorated, and Accuweather's 15 day forecast is pretty dire.

However, Accuweather's own track record for forecasting Portuguese weather more than a week ahead is also pretty dire - so fingers crossed!

A friend tells me they began cutting Monday at Tua and Malvedos. Elsewhere, others have decided to wait a few days after rain last weekend in their area. And this evening I'm having a few heavy showers here in Gaia, hopefully this wont get up to the vineyards.

http://www.ipma.pt/pt/otempo/prev.local ... dadeID=276 Portuguese weather authority's site, link to forecasts. Not lookin good for poor old Régua the next day or two. Districts/towns to watch:
Vila Real / Peso de Régua or Alijó (on the plain above Malvedos) or Sabrosa (on the plain above Pinhão) - Pinhão not an option.
Viseu / São Joâo de Pesqueira
Bragança / Carrazeda de Ansiaes (north and a bit east of Valeira Dam)
Guarda / Vila Nova de Foz Côa

Also interesting, Advid now has a page with info for past 7 days - http://www.advid.pt/ go to Meteorologia / Dados Climáticos - can choose various data types from the drop down box. At Pinhão they show 7.2 mm rain Sunday daily high temps 26 to 33 the past 7 days.

10mm reported at Vila Real, so hopefully not too much.

I wouldn't recommend trying to extrapolate from Vila Real as a rule - they get thoroughly dumped on by any and every passing rainstorm being in the middle of the Marão. I think they get rain that no one else does! Their annual total rainfall is about the same as on the coast.

Thanks for this info and insight Cynthia. Very interesting!

There was a bit of picking going on at Quinta Nova on Saturday but I saw very little elsewhere with most people saying they were going to start this week or later.

I was intriged on how many grapes in the parts of Quinta do Panascal which you can walk around had appeared to have gone over and shrivelled up: I would have thought that it was better to maximise the amount of juice available from a class A vineyard by going over it twice then risk spoilage. But perhaps it was just the few rows I walked through.

{engage Brian Blessed voice}

Jacob's alive!!!!!

A few days ago a storm began to assemble just to the south of Cape Verde, which has now developed and been named tropical storm Edouard. Whilst it may not reach hurricane status, it's predicted path indicates that it's remnants could very easily bring a lot of rain to the european landmass in about 8-10 days time - not welcome..

Quite a bullish update from the Malvedos site with some perfect bunches of Sousao on display.

Despite the raft of minor weather systems coming off the Atlantic, the Advid site indicates no further rain at Pinhao in the past week, so it looks like the mountains are doing a fine job.

Edouard is progressing slightly slower than previously forecast, but there is little improvement in it's trajectory - it, or it's remnants, look set to pass north of the Azores, so there's a sporting chance the French will cop the worst of it..

It looks, from a variety of sources, like there will be thunderstorms in Pinhão this week…

djewesbury wrote:It looks, from a variety of sources, like there will be thunderstorms in Pinhão this week…

Presumably they are following RAYC as he cycles around the Douro.

There was a little rain on Sunday (just over 2mm) and about twice as much yesterday. The forecast for today is not good and the cumulative total of rain may be enough to pause the harvest for a few days.

Graham's have picked the Stone Terraces, which feels early given the general timeline, and may reflect pessimism over the forecast.

Edouard has gravitated from a tropical storm to Cat 2 hurricane and has further slowed. It is currently projected to curl into the Azores on Sunday, slightly further south than previously forecast, and curling slightly southwards. This is not a good sign..

Edit: Malvedos site confirms Stone Terraces and Port Arthur vineyards harvested shortly before a brief heavy shower.

uncle tom wrote:Graham's have picked the Stone Terraces, which feels early given the general timeline, and may reflect pessimism over the forecast.

Edit: Malvedos site confirms Stone Terraces and Port Arthur vineyards harvested shortly before a brief heavy shower.

I saw this and it made me sad. I hope that this is the planned and normal harvest time for the Stone Terraces vineyards (Port Arthur and Vinha dos Cardenhos) and not some emergency harvest that could lower the quality of the 2014 Stone Terraces VP. The 2011 Stone Terraces VP is glorious and I was really hoping to see a follow-up for 2014.

From Facebook posts it appears those in the eastern areas are getting sun and those to the west end are getting rain. At least based on pictures being posted. Sounds like it's going to be an interesting harvest based on where you are.

From the Malvedos blog:


Nelson can’t help being impressed by the incredible colour of the Sousão that came in from Graham’s sister vineyard of Quinta do Tua to be vinified at the Malvedos winery.

As I type it is raining again here in Gaia - we have had intermittent showers, many pretty heavy, generally overnight or early morning, with mostly clear or at least dry afternoons the past few days. If you go to the ADVID site http://www.advid.pt meteorologia / dados climáticos ... it's worrying. The past three days 2.4, 4.8, then 6.6 mm of rain each of the past 3 days, nothing posted yet re today of course. For Vilariça it is showing nothing sunday or monday but 22.4mm of rain yesterday. I am devoutly hoping that is some wild unfortunate typo.

The hour by hour analysis of the numbers confirms the total for Vilarica.

But where exactly is this weather station? The name is familiar and I'm pretty sure there's a Quinta by that name or something similar, but Google maps points to a hamlet near the Spanish border, some way outside the demarcated area...

...Vilarica. But where exactly is this weather station? The name is familiar and I'm pretty sure there's a Quinta by that name or something similar,

Shame on you Tom!! You just flunked Symington 101!!! Vilariça is the valley in the northeast of the Douro where SFE have 3 quintas which were part of the Cockburn's property: Quintas do/da/de Ataide, Canada and Assares. The first two are south of Vila Flor (the main town out there) and Assares is a bit further north. The Altano table wines are made from these properties, which are organically farmed.

As for the weather station - ADVID's weather station is in fact located at Quinta do Ataide.

Let's see if I can upload a photo... a view of Ataide - just left of centre you can see a white house and a cluster of trees and buildings - that's it.

Wow, that's amazing detail Cynthia. But this sounds like terrible news! Is the harvest out there ruined? Surely 200+ mm of rain tends to fall in a fairly disruptive manner...

djewesbury wrote:Wow, that's amazing detail Cynthia. But this sounds like terrible news! Is the harvest out there ruined? Surely 200+ mm of rain tends to fall in a fairly disruptive manner...

20.4 mm. A little over 3/4".

That's still a lot of rain during harvest season, but not likely to be disruptive unless it arrives in the space of a single hour or less. A steady, gentle, drizzle all day long could easily reach 3/4" in a day.

Sorry. Overexuberant typing. I didn't think that 8" of rain had fallen in one go. That would be unequivocally catastrophic!

djewesbury wrote:Sorry. Overexuberant typing. I didn't think that 8" of rain had fallen in one go. That would be unequivocally catastrophic!

Understandable. We do have a tasting coming up next week. Exuberance is to be expected.

Glenn E. wrote:

djewesbury wrote:Sorry. Overexuberant typing. I didn't think that 8" of rain had fallen in one go. That would be unequivocally catastrophic!

Understandable. We do have a tasting coming up next week. Exuberance is to be expected.

Vilariça is the valley in the northeast of the Douro where SFE have 3 quintas which were part of the Cockburn's property: Quintas do/da/de Ataide, Canada and Assares. The first two are south of Vila Flor (the main town out there) and Assares is a bit further north.

Thankyou Cynthia - I've spent very little time in the Vila Flor area and don't know it at all well.

That's still a lot of rain during harvest season, but not likely to be disruptive unless it arrives in the space of a single hour or less.

The analysis shows that the rain fell almost entirely over a three hour period in the afternoon.

uncle tom wrote:The analysis shows that the rain fell almost entirely over a three hour period in the afternoon.

That is a decent rain, then. Hopefully no damage!

Hopefully no damage!

That much rain at this time of year is likely to be taken up by the vines and into the grapes, diluting the juice. It can also cause the grapes to split and start to rot.

They might get over it if the grapes were not too ripe and the rain is followed by a few warm dry breezy days; but that is not the forecast, and almost every day is seeing some rain at the moment.

Sadly, from a most auspicious start, I fear the vintage is descending into a rescue mission.

If Malvedos wasn’t the only Quinta where the picking of the best lots took place before the rain, there might be some decent Port still produced by those who got the right grapes in at the right time. Perhaps a bit like 2010?

If Malvedos wasn’t the only Quinta where the picking of the best lots took place before the rain, there might be some decent Port still produced by those who got the right grapes in at the right time. Perhaps a bit like 2010?

One hopes so, but by their own admission, Malvedos brought in their best grapes early to beat the weather.

I still hold out hope that some excellent port will be made this year, but the chances of a declarable year seem to be fading.

From what I hear, I agree with Tom. Some people appear to have harvested some grapes in excellent condition and will be able to use those to make port of excellent quality. However, there are still quite a few grapes to be harvested. Where these grapes are in the parts of the Douro which have so far avoided the rain, the quality is likely to be superb.

Where the rain has fallen in significant quantities, there is likely to be a small quantity of really good port.

This sounds like it's going to be a vintage to be bought by buyers who know what they are after - some superb quality available in small quantities, perhaps as single quinta wines at single quinta prices.

It will be interesting to see what happens in 18 months.

From the front lines....no rain at Malvedos Thursday or Friday (as of late morning). The Douro superior is doing quite well with very little to no rain. The biaxo and cima areas are getting lots more rain and not in a good way. This year it seems to be all about location. Douro superior and you should be ok if weather holds. The west areas are not doing so well (generally speaking).


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What Alex and Andy have said. Miguel Potes is doing a great job on the Malvedos Blog and in the latest post again makes the point about micro climates and the incredible differences in conditions across quite small distances - close to 1100 mm per year in Vila Real, half that at Malvedos 15 miles away.

We've had some let up here on the coast at last - though I have 15 cm of rain standing in an empty flowerpot outside - filled in the past week, it was empty last weekend. But blazing sunshine this afternoon, thank heavens. It's equinox today or tomorrow, and the outlook continues unsettled for a few more days but is forecast to settle down to clear sunshine again by the middle of next week.

Don't forget most promising vintage years are characterised by good Touriga Franca - which ripens late - so there is still time for that to come true. I wouldn't give up hope yet.

The Adorigo weather station is reporting 18mm of rain yesterday whilst Pinhao registered just half a mm.

Pinhao hasn't had a wholly dry day for over a week now although it's mostly been very light; however the forecast gives little cause for optimism.

I suspect the growers will be going all-out to get the harvest in now..

I crossed the Spain-Portugal border yesterday and spent the whole day cycling south through Braganca, Mirandela and Vila Flor in horrible rain storms, though there looked like there may be sunshine to the South. Am posting this from Pocinho, where there has definitely been substantial rain overnight and this morning (though sunny now)

The Advid site is reporting more consistant rainfall across the region for yesterday - typically half an inch across the board. Showery weather is also forecast for the next two days

This is very sad for the growers. Problems at fruit set meant a small crop was inevitable, but until a fortnight ago there was every reason to hope for the compensation of excellent quality.

There will doubtless be some good port from this vintage from the early pickings, but it now looks inevitable that a sizeable percentage of the crop will be seriously compromised.

Mixed news. Much rain at Vesuvio. Unpicked Touriga Franca -- tight bunched grapes -- might well struggle.

But we tasted some lots, Vesuvio, from 22 Sept so before the rain, of different blends of Touriga Nacional, Alicante Bouchet, and Souzão. Very lovely, and perfumed in a manner reminiscent of 2007. So there will be some good Ports in 2014, even if of small volume.

jdaw1 wrote:Mixed news. Much rain at Vesuvio. Unpicked Touriga Franca -- tight bunched grapes -- might well struggle.

But we tasted some lots, Vesuvio, from 22 Sept so before the rain, of different blends of Touriga Nacional, Alicante Bouchet, and Souzão. Very lovely, and perfumed in a manner reminiscent of 2007. So there will be some good Ports in 2014, even if of small volume.

You mean - you're in Portugal?? But what a coincidence, I heard Derek's there too! You really should look him up!

All of Advids sites saw more rain yesterday - in the last 48 hrs Vilarica has seen another 20mm of rain on top of the soaking it got a week ago.

But.. the forecast for the next six days is much better, with no rain and clear skies in prospect.

The question is - how much damage has been done? Are the unpicked grapes splitting and rotting, or are the growers able to leave them on the vines for a few more days, to re-concentrate their juice?

Report from the front line:

There was lots of rain at the weekend and beginning of this week but none since Tuesday afternoon. The grapes picked before the rain are generally reported as being superb but on average it seems most producers only picked about one third before the weather broke. All fruit seems to have been fully mature when the rain fell so anything still on the vine now is at severe risk of rot and/or dilution.

At best I think this vintage will produce some very good SQVP in small quantity.

DRT wrote:There was lots of rain at the weekend and beginning of this week but none since Tuesday afternoon. The grapes picked before the rain are generally reported as being superb but on average it seems most producers only picked about one third before the weather broke. All fruit seems to have been fully mature when the rain fell so anything still on the vine now is at severe risk of rot and/or dilution.

At best I think this vintage will produce some very good SQVP in small quantity.

I suppose, if it’s any consolation, that whilst small-quantity SQVP-only years aren’t particularly good for the industry they tend to be better for the drinkers...

I suppose, if it’s any consolation, that whilst small-quantity SQVP-only years aren’t particularly good for the industry they tend to be better for the drinkers...

You mean that after a run of mostly pretty decent years, the producers will have plenty of stock to supply the French market with the quality they expect?

That’s a fair point. I dare say it’s hard for them to get enough grapes suitable for basic tawny production...

jdaw1 wrote:We don’t yet have much information about the quality of the 2014 Douro grapes, but we have a hint of a little news.

Reuters, in an article entitled [url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/04/us-usa-weather-idUSBREA000JC20140104]U.S. Midwest, Northeast brace for Arctic blast, record lows[/url], wrote:Many parts of the U.S. Midwest braced for a blast of Arctic air this weekend that could bring some of the coldest temperatures in two decades before advancing to the Northeast, where residents are still digging out from a deadly snowstorm.

Starting Sunday, the deep freeze will be felt in the northern U.S. plains, including North and South Dakota, and through the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley, according to the National Weather Service.

It will be some of the coldest weather to grip the region in two decades, with blizzard conditions expected in the Central Plains and Great Lakes regions, forecasters said.

"The last really big Arctic outbreak was 1994, said Bob Oravec, a forecaster with the National Weather Service. "Outbreaks like this don't occur everyday. They aren't unheard of, but they are unusual."

1994, eh?

Perhaps it would be better not to count chickens before they are conceived.

OK, that forecast aspiration was optimistic. It was good until the harvest, and then it went wrong. As one of the winemakers told us, it was a harvest of three halves: before the rain; before the big rain; and the big rain.

I was in the Douro for one week during this "funky" harvest. I talked to many winemakers, like Dirk Niepoort, David Guimaraens or Alzira Carvalho. I didn´t get that anyone was deeply depressed , fortunately the majority of good grapes was picked before the rain, maybe it won´t be a general declared year, but some very good stuff should be in the cellars.
I have summarized my impressions on my blog:

http://www.passion-port.de/berichte.php ... richtid=89

christopherpfaff wrote:I was in the Douro for one week during this "funky" harvest. I talked to many winemakers, like Dirk Niepoort, David Guimaraens or Alzira Carvalho. I didn´t get that anyone was deeply depressed , fortunately the majority of good grapes was picked before the rain, maybe it won´t be a general declared year, but some very good stuff should be in the cellars.
I have summarized my impressions on my blog:

http://www.passion-port.de/berichte.php ... richtid=89

It really depended on where one's grapes were at. Farther west was bad as the rain started there first, and more heavily. Farther east in the Douro Superior less rain and it came later. That was until the rain came everywhere for days. A little rain was ok, but when heavy rain fell, then the warm humid temperatures kicked in, disaster started. With that much rain after a couple days the berries started to swell, the thin grape skins cracked open, and rot started to creep in. That resulted in a lot of triage on the receiving lines. As Julian pointed out, it was a harvest broken down before the rain, during the rain, and during a lot of rain.

Andy Velebil wrote:

christopherpfaff wrote:I was in the Douro for one week during this "funky" harvest. I talked to many winemakers, like Dirk Niepoort, David Guimaraens or Alzira Carvalho. I didn´t get that anyone was deeply depressed , fortunately the majority of good grapes was picked before the rain, maybe it won´t be a general declared year, but some very good stuff should be in the cellars.
I have summarized my impressions on my blog:

http://www.passion-port.de/berichte.php ... richtid=89

It really depended on where one's grapes were at. Farther west was bad as the rain started there first, and more heavily. Farther east in the Douro Superior less rain and it came later. That was until the rain came everywhere for days. A little rain was ok, but when heavy rain fell, then the warm humid temperatures kicked in, disaster started. With that much rain after a couple days the berries started to swell, the thin grape skins cracked open, and rot started to creep in. That resulted in a lot of triage on the receiving lines. As Julian pointed out, it was a harvest broken down before the rain, during the rain, and during a lot of rain.

We talked to many people on this year's Port Harvest tour. Andy's summary is about what we heard as well.

Out east some people were basically unaffected by the rain. The best number we heard was 85% harvested before the rain started, and the rest came in before any damage had been done. At the west end, though, the damage was brutal for some. We heard numbers as low as 33% harvested before the rain, and those grapes were harvested early because they knew the rain was coming. In the middle Douro the reports were very mixed.

Grapes harvested before the rain are good and should make some outstanding Port. I think there's at least some chance that Graham's will bottle The Stone Terraces as they deliberately picked those two small parcels a day or two early to avoid the rain. The cask sample we tasted was really interesting, but I thought it showed great promise. Others were also enthusiastic about their own harvests, but the general feeling was resignation about what could have been. There will be some stellar SQVPs, especially from out east, but I would be shocked if there were a general declaration. The damage was too great across too many Quintas.

An excellent comment on the 2014 harvest, The 2014 Douro Harvest: The Year of the Fox, by Paul Symington. I thought it fair and informative — a model of such things.

Paul's comment about the quality of Touriga Nacional gives me even more hope for a 2014 Graham's Stone Terraces, as those two vineyards are ~90% TN (according to Dominic).

jdaw1 wrote:An excellent comment on the 2014 harvest, The 2014 Douro Harvest: The Year of the Fox, by Paul Symington. I thought it fair and informative — a model of such things.

Absolutely.

Glenn E. wrote:Paul's comment about the quality of Touriga Nacional gives me even more hope for a 2014 Graham's Stone Terraces, as those two vineyards are ~90% TN (according to Dominic).

Do you not think it might give a slightly odd impression to produce a super premium vintage port without a regular declaration? The expectation could soon follow that they would put out one every year in the Vesuvio-style.

JacobH wrote:Do you not think it might give a slightly odd impression to produce a super premium vintage port without a regular declaration? The expectation could soon follow that they would put out one every year in the Vesuvio-style.

Nacional can happen in non-Noval years; and Noval can happen in non-Nacional years.

jdaw1 wrote:

JacobH wrote:Do you not think it might give a slightly odd impression to produce a super premium vintage port without a regular declaration? The expectation could soon follow that they would put out one every year in the Vesuvio-style.

Nacional can happen in non-Noval years; and Noval can happen in non-Nacional years.

Exactly. Plus they have already neglected 2012 and presumably 2013, so already not in the Vesuvio style.

Noticed a thing on twitter from Nierpoort; http://www.niepoort-vinhos.com/en/reports/