Oh, it's suddenly gone very quiet.. Anybody out there…?jdaw1 wrote:Innumerate rubbish.DRT wrote:That is quite a margin in a two horse race.
Odds of 1/4 and 3/1 imply probabilities of 80% and 25% (the total exceeding 100% by the bookies’ profit). So divide by 1.05 to get implied probabilities of 76% and 24%.
Let’s assume that the Yes and No votes are normally distributed, with a standard deviation of ±5% (this σ having been guessed by me). So if the expected outcome were 53.6% : 46.4%, with that uncertainty, the probability of a Yes would indeed be about 76%. But 53.6% : 46.4% is quite a small margin.
Lies, Damned Lies and Meaningless Drivel
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Lies, Damned Lies and Meaningless Drivel
Some posts moved here from The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014 by jdaw1.
Daniel J.
Husband of a relentless former Soviet Chess Master.
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Husband of a relentless former Soviet Chess Master.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
please define standardly distributed.djewesbury wrote:Oh, it's suddenly gone very quiet.. Anybody out there…?jdaw1 wrote:Innumerate rubbish.DRT wrote:That is quite a margin in a two horse race.
Odds of 1/4 and 3/1 imply probabilities of 80% and 25% (the total exceeding 100% by the bookies’ profit). So divide by 1.05 to get implied probabilities of 76% and 24%.
Let’s assume that the Yes and No votes are normally distributed, with a standard deviation of ±5% (this σ having been guessed by me). So if the expected outcome were 53.6% : 46.4%, with that uncertainty, the probability of a Yes would indeed be about 76%. But 53.6% : 46.4% is quite a small margin.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
Normally distributed. It’s not, of course, very little is, but the approximation isn’t going to mislead.DRT wrote:please define standardly distributed.
If you want to attack, attack the ±5%.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
It's exponential.DRT wrote:please define standardlynormally distributed.
Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
For those new to this rant, start here.PhilW wrote:It's exponential.DRT wrote:please define standardlynormally distributed.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
Agreed to there; and that is the margin which surprises me.jdaw1 wrote:Odds of 1/4 and 3/1 imply probabilities of 80% and 25% (the total exceeding 100% by the bookies’ profit). So divide by 1.05 to get implied probabilities of 76% and 24%.
I admit that you've then lost me when you proceeded to somehow apply a normal distribution to the voting, since it is a straight yes/no.
Last edited by PhilW on 18:08 Sun 14 Sep 2014, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
But for once, it actually is (normal distributions follow an exponential function, unless limited by boundary conditions), and Derek was missing his chance to say so!jdaw1 wrote:For those new to this rant, start here.PhilW wrote:It's exponential.DRT wrote:please define standardlynormally distributed.
Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
But our knowledge of the Yes is that it will be μ±σ. By assuming σ, and using the observed probability of 76%, we can deduce μ, which isn’t far from ½.PhilW wrote:I admit that you've then lost me when you proceeded to somehow applying a normal distribution to the voting, since it is a straight yes/no.
Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
The equation for a normal distribution isn’t exponential, even though it contains an exponential. As you well know.PhilW wrote:But for once, it actually is (normal distributions follow an exponential function, unless limited by boundary conditions), and Derek was missing his chance to say so!
(Are we off topic?)
Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
I didn't want to embarrass him in public.PhilW wrote:But for once, it actually is (normal distributions follow an exponential function, unless limited by boundary conditions), and Derek was missing his chance to say so!jdaw1 wrote:For those new to this rant, start here.PhilW wrote:It's exponential.DRT wrote:please define standardlynormally distributed.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
Could an admin please move all this twaddle to Lies, Damned Lies and Meaningless Drivel?jdaw1 wrote:The equation for a normal distribution isn’t exponential, even though it contains an exponential. As you well know.PhilW wrote:But for once, it actually is (normal distributions follow an exponential function, unless limited by boundary conditions), and Derek was missing his chance to say so!
(Are we off topic?)
Daniel J.
Husband of a relentless former Soviet Chess Master.
delete.. delete.. *sigh*.. delete...
Husband of a relentless former Soviet Chess Master.
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
Please link to the post where you want to make the split.
"The first duty of Port is to be red"
Ernest H. Cockburn
Ernest H. Cockburn
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
Somebody appears to doing it already. I think the point where mathematicians start discussing bookies' odds is probably a good point to administer the scalpel.DRT wrote:Please link to the post where you want to make the split.
Daniel J.
Husband of a relentless former Soviet Chess Master.
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Husband of a relentless former Soviet Chess Master.
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- Dalva Golden White Colheita 1952
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Re: Lies, Damned Lies and Meaningless Drivel
Maths is nice. What happened to the link to the maths jokes website? I'm sure there was one.
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- Dalva Golden White Colheita 1952
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Re: The Scottish Independence Referendum, 18th Sept 2014
Yes, but it's a good topic.jdaw1 wrote:(Are we off topic?)
With σ defined/assumed as a constant, then the normal distribution function is of the form f(x)=k.eg(x)jdaw1 wrote:The equation for a normal distribution isn’t exponential, even though it contains an exponential. As you well know.PhilW wrote:But for once, it actually is (normal distributions follow an exponential function, unless limited by boundary conditions), and Derek was missing his chance to say so!
Does g(x) being of quadratic form therefore preclude this equation from being described as of exponential form?
Re: Lies, Damned Lies and Meaningless Drivel
Here are a couple of cartoons which made me chuckleLGTrotter wrote:Maths is nice. What happened to the link to the maths jokes website? I'm sure there was one.
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- cartoon_maths_1.jpg (29.36 KiB) Viewed 6525 times
Re: Lies, Damned Lies and Meaningless Drivel
and the other
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- cartoon_maths_2.jpg (28.41 KiB) Viewed 6525 times