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It is already February and nobody has begun speculating about weather systems forming in the Gulf of Mexico and what they might mean for this record-breaking vintage.
Does anybody want to start us off?

Clouds, there are clouds everywhere. Whatever shall we do?

I'll skip ahead to the end point:

2015 - there was weather, wines were made. Best of the 21st century if the middlemen are to be believed.

PopulusTremula wrote:I'll skip ahead to the end point:

2015 - there was weather, wines were made. Best of the 21st century if the middlemen are to be believed.

Now, now, no need to be so accurate.

Has nobody been monitoring the long range Atlantic forecasts? Is there no model of El Niño-related jetstream aberrations? Are we completely without testimony of the unusually mild Guatemalan winter?

My concern is more specific than yours. The forecast of a mid-harvest storm is wrong, even though such forecasts are usually credible. So I do hope that the grapes are not needlessly picked early.

Try GFS, ECM and METO for forecast models. No idea if they will tell you much about Portugal, Em is an avid follower of snow and is forever quoting these.

Thank you, at last some hard data to grapple with.

It seems that the harvest has started with table wine grapes starting to be processed in at least two wineries.

Has anyone found or is anyone aware of a harvest blog this year?

Not aware of any active blogs - the usual suspects have gone rather quiet, which is a pity..

Is it not still holiday time? I expect some updates to start appearing this week.

Francisco Ferreira have told via facebook, that the harvest at Vallado starts today with the picking of Moscatel Galego grapes.

that the harvest starts with white grapes is not unusual, but a beginning in the Baixo Corgo on 18th of August seems to me as it will be an early harvest in general.

Spoke with a Douro viticultor circa 30 July who said likely quite early - one week if not two - he was seeing pintor end June vs normal mid-end July. Yes, last week July and first two of August are the typical holidays for wine firms and especially the viti and winemaking teams. This week is the usual start of maturation studies, so expect news to start trickling in from here...

Oscar recently posted on Facebook that Quevedo has just started maturation checks and that early indications are that if the weather continues as it is at present then picking is likely to start in early September.

After a very quiet period in the tropics, which has resulted in a settled weather pattern dumping showers on the UK, but not on Portugal, a whole raft of squalls and a minor hurricane (soon downgraded to a tropical storm) are kicking off, with a another hurricane likely to form up in the next couple of days.

This looks worryingly likely to trip the weather patterns from summer to autumn mode prematurely, and ahead of the port harvest..

..start crossing toes...!

In an email, Henry Shotton at Malvedos, wrote:Regarding the Vintage yes it seems it will be early. Charles told me to be ready to start at Malvedos on 7-8th September which is about 10 days early!



The grapes are looking magnificent! August was not too hot and there was some rain over the weekend that was much needed and will also soften the skins. So fingers crossed for a good year!

In another email received this morning, Nick Delaforce at Niepoort's Vale de Mendiz winery wrote:Starting harvest EARLY-tomorrow !

Think Nick may have been talking about the general (table wine / white grape) harvest at Nápoles rather than the port harvest at Mendiz. If they were picking port grapes it would be super early.

djewesbury wrote:Think Nick may have been talking about the general (table wine / white grape) harvest at Nápoles rather than the port harvest at Mendiz. If they were picking port grapes it would be super early.

A picture I saw appeared to be white grapes on the sorting table, so one would assume it was white table wine grapes. A tad early for Port grapes still.

I have posted a press release from SFE about the 2015 vintage here.

The previously noted activity in the tropics has mostly now morphed into weather systems heading into the Azores, and the Douro forecast for the next week is for showers, some possibly heavy. I'm guessing that this will push the port harvest back a few days.

From the satellite images one can see some clear air behind these systems, so all is not lost - many great vintages have benefited from freshening rain at this stage. The question is whether the necessary window in the weather will then open up to allow a perfect harvest.

There is some fresh activity developing off the African coast at the moment, but this is well to the south of Cape Verde and therefore more likely to head into the Caribbean, rather than to slingshot into europe.

- Here's hoping!

I don't have a local rainfall reading, but the reporting station at Vila Real recorded 37mm of rain last week, which is rather more than enough for freshening purposes..

The IPMA forecast currently indicates a few dry days, but with more, and possibly significant, rain from the 6th to 9th. Accuweather is less pessimistic however.

- And then there's Fred..

Fred is a tropical storm, briefly uprated to hurricane status, that has followed a slightly unusual path up the west coast of Africa and across Cape Verde. It is forecast to veer westward for a few days but is then likely to die out over colder water and dump a load of rain bearing cloud over the Azores and then on to europe. If it heads into Iberia, the timing is likely to be most unwelcome for the port harvest..

Well, the IPMA forecast for Regua suddenly changed and the rain was cancelled - but now today it has reverted back to much the same forecast as before..

Tropical storm Fred is following the path I feared, and it (or it's remnants) look set to reach the Azores in about a week's time. However the satellite photos are showing a relatively small and focused area of cloud, so it's rain load may be modest - we'll get a better idea as it weakens and the eye disperses..

The remnants of hurricane Fred are now bringing showers to northern Portugal; fortunately, most of its rain load seems to have fallen at sea and the Marao will hopefully be catching much of the rest.

However there is currently a dire forecast for Tuesday as the remains of Henri, a storm that had previously looked likely to miss Iberia and head for France and the UK, is now forecast to impact with a vengeance. The IPMA forecast for Regua is for very heavy rain and the Accuweather forecast for Vila Real is for no less than 76mm, with both forecasters predicting further showers for the following two two days..

For the second year running, there is word that the growers have been rushing to bring in their best grapes before the weather breaks. This must be hugely frustrating for them.

The forecast is only marginally better than it was a day ago - rain is expected to start falling in the next few hours and get serious tomorrow afternoon..

uncle tom wrote:For the second year running, there is word that the growers have been rushing to bring in their best grapes before the weather breaks.

I think what Tom means is that "in each of the last two hundred years grape growers in the Douro have done all they can to harvest their grapes before the weather becomes a problem".

Hold the front page!

Last year a promising vintage was severely damaged when the weather broke after barely a third of the grapes were harvested.

If today's rain is anywhere near as bad as forecast, the weather this year will have broken three days earlier, with probably less of an even more promising vintage safely gathered.

This is not the norm of the last two centuries, but a once in a decade tragic scenario that has now struck two years running..

Posted on Facebook:

GRAHAM's Port Wine wrote:The arrival of tropical storm "Henri" yesterday morning has made September the wettest month of the year at Quinta dos Malvedos. Due to the abundant rainfall (54.8mm) picking had to be called off for the day. The rain was followed by strong overnight winds which rapidly dried the grapes and with dry, sunny conditions forecast for the next few days, the vintage is back on track.

Posted on Facebook 2 hours ago...

Translation: basically we're screwed for grapes not already picked. Seems many people are doing the same. 2014 all over again???


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It’s only mid-Sept. Could the grapes dry sufficiently by wind and heat for a good harvest to resume? I vaguely recall a previous harvest split by rain—can somebody recall the exact year?

jdaw1 wrote:It’s only mid-Sept. Could the grapes dry sufficiently by wind and heat for a good harvest to resume?

I think that is exactly what Qscar has said in his FB post.

Rain during the harvest is certainly not unusual. The problems come from what happens when the rain stops.

If they don’t rot, there’s enough time for an excellent result. If they rot, well, <expletive suppressed>, they’ve rotted.

jdaw1 wrote:If they don’t rot, there’s enough time for an excellent result. If they rot, well, <expletive suppressed>, they’ve rotted.

Precisely.

Has the IVDP yet banned these?

Would it be financially viable to use helicopters over the vineyards to blow the rain off the grapes asap? It might likely be too peaky demand to make it worthwhile for the service provider also.

DRT wrote:

jdaw1 wrote:It’s only mid-Sept. Could the grapes dry sufficiently by wind and heat for a good harvest to resume?

I think that is exactly what Qscar has said in his FB post.

Rain during the harvest is certainly not unusual. The problems come from what happens when the rain stops.

And usually it's a light rain not 2" in one day.


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PhilW wrote:Would it be financially viable to use helicopters over the vineyards to blow the rain off the grapes asap? It might likely be too peaky demand to make it worthwhile for the service provider also.

Helicopters are exceedingly expensive. And in the steep douro hillsides, very very dangerous as well. That coming from my 10+ years experience working/flying in my departments helicopter section.


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Andy Velebil wrote:

PhilW wrote:Would it be financially viable to use helicopters over the vineyards to blow the rain off the grapes asap? It might likely be too peaky demand to make it worthwhile for the service provider also.

Helicopters are exceedingly expensive. And in the steep douro hillsides, very very dangerous as well. That coming from my 10+ years experience working/flying in my departments helicopter section.


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Two nations, separated by one language - and also by ironic humour

DRT wrote:

jdaw1 wrote:It’s only mid-Sept. Could the grapes dry sufficiently by wind and heat for a good harvest to resume?

I think that is exactly what Qscar has said in his FB post.

Rain during the harvest is certainly not unusual. The problems come from what happens when the rain stops.

The other issue, and a potential major one, is if the grapes are already at the perfect maturation and ready to harvest. A large rain fall will cause the berries to rapidly absorb water, swell, and then break the skins open. As well as diluting the berry and ruining said perfect maturation. If the berries aren't in a good spot, then the extra water that has time to continue to mature and balance out with subsequent good weather then all is well.

The big issue is, from reports I've read, it seems as though most things were already reaching or had reached that perfect maturation and things were looking outstanding for a perfect harvest. Rain of this magnitude isn't a good thing as there is a high likelihood the berries will never end up as good as they were before the rain. Of course, in the Douro this can be minimized of magnified depending on location as there are so many micro-climates.

DRT wrote:

Andy Velebil wrote:

PhilW wrote:Would it be financially viable to use helicopters over the vineyards to blow the rain off the grapes asap? It might likely be too peaky demand to make it worthwhile for the service provider also.

Helicopters are exceedingly expensive. And in the steep douro hillsides, very very dangerous as well. That coming from my 10+ years experience working/flying in my departments helicopter section.


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Two nations, separated by one language - and also by ironic humour

Thanks for the translation

PhilW wrote:likely be too peaky demand to make it worthwhile for the service provider also.

If only a major Port producer had a hotel full of rich guests who could pay to ride at the same time.

jdaw1 wrote:If only a major Port producer had a hotel full of rich guests who could pay to ride at the same time.

I'm sure there would be strong demand for flights up and down the Douro - in the rain. Maybe combine it with flying lessons?

PhilW wrote:

jdaw1 wrote:If only a major Port producer had a hotel full of rich guests who could pay to ride at the same time.

I'm sure there would be strong demand for flights up and down the Douro - in the rain. Maybe combine it with flying lessons?

and at night...

Andy Velebil wrote:

DRT wrote:

jdaw1 wrote:It’s only mid-Sept. Could the grapes dry sufficiently by wind and heat for a good harvest to resume?

I think that is exactly what Qscar has said in his FB post.

Rain during the harvest is certainly not unusual. The problems come from what happens when the rain stops.

The other issue, and a potential major one, is if the grapes are already at the perfect maturation and ready to harvest. A large rain fall will cause the berries to rapidly absorb water, swell, and then break the skins open. As well as diluting the berry and ruining said perfect maturation. If the berries aren't in a good spot, then the extra water that has time to continue to mature and balance out with subsequent good weather then all is well.

The big issue is, from reports I've read, it seems as though most things were already reaching or had reached that perfect maturation and things were looking outstanding for a perfect harvest. Rain of this magnitude isn't a good thing as there is a high likelihood the berries will never end up as good as they were before the rain. Of course, in the Douro this can be minimized of magnified depending on location as there are so many micro-climates.

I think this is going to come down to how much of the good stuff was already harvested before the rain fell. The harvest started very early and I know of at least some shippers who were all but finished processing their best vintage quality grapes a week ago. If that is a widespread pattern it might still be a good year for VP but a bad year for quantity.

DRT wrote:I think this is going to come down to how much of the good stuff was already harvested before the rain fell. The harvest started very early and I know of at least some shippers who were all but finished processing their best vintage quality grapes a week ago. If that is a widespread pattern it might still be a good year for VP but a bad year for quantity.

Precisely, I would think those in the east would be less affected than those in the west part of the Douro. As the later are typically a bit behind ripening due to the cooler weather they get.

I think this is going to come down to how much of the good stuff was already harvested before the rain fell. The harvest started very early and I know of at least some shippers who were all but finished processing their best vintage quality grapes a week ago. If that is a widespread pattern it might still be a good year for VP but a bad year for quantity.

I can see a scenario emerging where some producers are in a position to declare excellent VPs in two years time but many are not. If that looks likely to be the case, I would hope that talk of a 2015 declaration is put on hold until 2016 is a known entity. Better that a declared year is one that that all can sign up to..

uncle tom wrote:

I think this is going to come down to how much of the good stuff was already harvested before the rain fell. The harvest started very early and I know of at least some shippers who were all but finished processing their best vintage quality grapes a week ago. If that is a widespread pattern it might still be a good year for VP but a bad year for quantity.

I can see a scenario emerging where some producers are in a position to declare excellent VPs in two years time but many are not. If that looks likely to be the case, I would hope that talk of a 2015 declaration is put on hold until 2016 is a known entity. Better that a declared year is one that that all can sign up to..

I wonder how many producers - and which - might be able to declare 2014 similarly? It would be interesting if 2014 and 2015 turned out to be a "split" declaration due to weather, though I suspect that anyone able to declare would be able to do so both years due to their location.

I'm still hoping for a 2014 Graham's Stone Terraces because we visted there on the Harvest Tour. Dominic told us that the Stone Terraces were completely harvested before the rain came, so as long as the Port turns out as good as they thought it might we could get a super cuvee declaration. Though that will probably also depend on how they want to use that super cuvee, brand-wise.

uncle tom wrote:

I think this is going to come down to how much of the good stuff was already harvested before the rain fell. The harvest started very early and I know of at least some shippers who were all but finished processing their best vintage quality grapes a week ago. If that is a widespread pattern it might still be a good year for VP but a bad year for quantity.

I can see a scenario emerging where some producers are in a position to declare excellent VPs in two years time but many are not. If that looks likely to be the case, I would hope that talk of a 2015 declaration is put on hold until 2016 is a known entity. Better that a declared year is one that that all can sign up to..

I completely disagree with this, Tom. The Douro is not Communist. If shippers have excellent juice to ship they should ship it, not wait for some sort of collective agreement.

DRT wrote:If shippers have excellent juice to ship they should ship it, not wait for some sort of collective agreement.

+1

I completely disagree with this, Tom. The Douro is not Communist. If shippers have excellent juice to ship they should ship it, not wait for some sort of collective agreement.

There's nothing communist about this. The port trade works best when there is constructive cooperation between the producers, the recognition of which gave rise to the concept of the 'declared year'. Competition and rivalry delivers the best results when the participants compete on a level playing field. Petty point scoring when one company gets lucky with the weather or another doesn't is ultimately destructive.