Is the party over?

[uncle tom]

A month ago there was confident expectation of another bumper crop of city bonuses at the end of the year. Those expectations have now evaporated, to be replaced by fears of redundancy in the financial sector.

No-one can be quite sure how the current 'subprime' crisis will map out, but it looks fairly certain that when the dust settles, the bloodiest noses will be in the financial sector, with few institutions escaping unscathed.

As a result, wantonly indulgent Christmas parties may be a bit thin on the ground in the City this Xmas...

The auction market for top wines went a bit loopy in the first half of the year, and port prices were not immune.

The first catalogue for the new auction season is now out, and the estimates look more than a little ambitious..

If you were a London or New York wine merchant, would you be topping up the stocks of Petrus right now?

I suspect we will see many lots go unsold this autumn..

Tom

[Nevski]

I remember that I saw once the study that showed the correlation between fine wine prices and overall financial situation is low. I might even have that study on my hard disk.. Unfortunately for us I think the correlation is even lower in port prices. How many of us will decrease port buying because of this subprime crisis..? Not too many I guess

Personally, there is only one factor which affects my buyings - it starts with w and ends to e..

[uncle tom]

We won't stop buying, but there is clear evidence that when the going gets tough economically, sales of vintage port suffers badly - 1931 being largely overlooked is the classic example..

Tom

[Andy Velebil]

We won't stop buying, but there is clear evidence that when the going gets tough economically, sales of vintage port suffers badly

Tom, you're right. we won't stop buying and hopefully prices come down even more when all those non-geeks stop buying....ok, I we can always wish right

[ajfeather]

Talking to my friends in the fine art world they certainly think there is a correlation between different asset prices. They do expect a downturn to lead to lower prices. Looking forward to it

[AHB]

A little late to the party, I understand that Straker Chadwick held a wine auction over the weekend.

Any clues as to port prices for the autumn from there? Did anyone attend? Are we going to look forward to a bumper season of cheap port at auction or are prices at auction still looking ridiculous?

Alex

[uncle tom]

I put a raft of absentee bids in - almost all 'longshots' - I'll see if there's anything in the post tomorow!

Tom

[AHB]

Do you know whether JSC post the results of their auctions on the web or make them publicly available in some other way?

Alex

[uncle tom]

I asked Tom C about that a while back - they don't publish results on the grounds that they are too small and don't have enough staff.

I got the impression that it was a question they quite often have to field..

Tom

[uncle tom]

Well an invoice arrived in the post this morning.

Despite a fairly hawkish approach to my bidding, I secured a total of nine lots - in all 71 bottles, (65 Vintage ports, 2 Colheitas, 1 10yr, 1 20yr,1 40yr & an LBV)

I wouldn't say that this was a list of outrageous bargains - but the product of a more sober market place.

Tom

[Conky]

Uncle Tom,

Come on!!! You cant just leave it at that. I understand if you might not want to go on at length, or give prices, but you can surely give us the highlights of what you aquired?

Alan

[jdaw1]

Tom, share the joy.

[DRT]

Tom,

Any leakers or gluggers that require urgent assistance please let me know

Derek

[jdaw1]

Tom,

Any in perfect condition that require urgent assistance please let me know.

Julian.

[uncle tom]

OK, Ok...

VP's:

Croft '77 x 10
Gilbert '91 x 1
Gilbert '95 x 1
Taylor '85 x 12
Fonseca '94 x 4
Cockburn '97 x 11
Warre '85 x 12
Dow '94 x 12
Constantino '41 x 2

Colheitas (no bottling dates given)

Gilbert '63 x 1
Burmester '85 x 1

Tawnies

Gilbert 10yr x 1
Burmester 20yr x 1
Burmester 40yr x 1

LBV

Burmester '89 x 1

I've no idea if the LBV is filtered or not!

The Gilberts are a rarity for the UK, and I've never encountered a Burmester LBV before. The Croft '77's were part of a series of lots that had been rescued from a flooded cellar, and cost just £20.71 each.

- might be some suitable Derek juice there!

Tom

[jdaw1]

Very handsome. The 1985s will be lovely; I’ve never heard of Gilbert.

[DRT]

I have had 1 Burmester LBV (1994) and can confirm that they are unfiltered - see TN

Derek Juice

[jdaw1]

Gilbert '63 x 1

DRT: the declarations database is missing the Gilbert 1963.

[uncle tom]

The Gilbert '63 was a Colheita, and was drunk on Xmas day '07, in my local pub.

Tom

[AHB]

Going back to the original post, have we seen enough activity over the second half of last year and the first quarter of this year to indicate whether port prices are softening?

From personal experience, I don't see retailers lowering prices significantly. The auctions which I've looked at also seem to be holding firm in pricing, although unsold percentages seem to be on the increase. The conclusion that I'm coming to is that the number of forced sellers is still negligible with the folks who are selling choosing to keep hold of their stocks rather than sell for a price significantly lower than 2 years ago.

From what I hear, the port being offered this year from the 2007 vintage will be priced only slightly below the initial offering for the 2003 vintage.

Alex

[Glenn E.]

I don't see too much softening in actual brick & mortar stores, but internet retail prices have definitely come down. Not a huge amount, but they've definitely come down. I'd say about 10% so far.

I suspect the difference is that internet stores are more aware and more competitive. They have to be - if you can see their price, you can see everyone else's as well. B&M stores are typically only aware of the prices at 1 or 2 local competitors (if that), so they're fairly insulated from the reality of the internet.

[SushiNorth]

I've seen more discounts among brick and mortar stores, especially those with a web presence. In addition, I've seen a huge weakening in prices at WineCommune, which is notable because it represents small-time bargain hunters (like me!). Folks with bank accounts large enough to buy caseloads steer clear of it, and the smaller investors who usually frequent it are panicked. I have my eye on a bunch of stuff for this sunday.

Meanwhile, I have a friend in the collectibles industry and he informs me that their market functions in reverse of wall street. When stocks tank, collectible prices go up as people look for safe harbors for their money. The reason I don't think it's affected the wine market in the same way is that we're dealing with prices overinflated by good times.

[Overtired and emotional]

For me, the sign came last autumn when Farr Vintners began again to e mail me after several years absence. AS in many sectors, very old mailing lists are being dredged up.