2008 vintage - The countdown

[uncle tom]

While the climate in the Douro is significant throughout the year - especially with regard to yields; the difference between a declarable year, and an also-ran, is almost always determined in the 40 days between now and the end of September.

So far, the conditions this year have not been particularly auspicious with regard to yield, as the period of fruit set was less than ideal. But small yields can also be a harbinger of good quality; so from the VP perspective things have been proceeding well, with more than a passing similarity to the vintage of 2000.

The immediate weather forecast is also good. A slightly mediocre 15 day forecast a few days ago has now been revised to show good hot weather over the next fortnight, punctuated by a single wet day on the 25th.

Looking further afield at the atlantic hurricane season, the remnants of which have so frequently rebounded off the Americas to give the Iberian peninsula an unwelcome soaking during vintage, the situation is also looking good.

Tropical storm Fay is now projected to head directly into the US mainland, and is likely to be completely demolished in the process. Following on, a broad atlantic depression that developed a couple of days ago has now been downgraded from a code Orange to a code Yellow, making it unlikely to develop into a storm worthy of a name.

Beyond that, there is currently nothing on the horizon.

Feedback from the front line would now be very welcome, particularly with regard to the timing of the vintage. Historically, the picking of the best grapes from the best Quintas has normally commenced on about the 20th of September - it would be very interesting to know whether this vintage is likely to run ahead or behind of that benchmark.

Tom

[g-man]

I'm excited as 2008 would be my marriage year and am looking to stash a way some port!

[benread]

I'm excited as 2008 would be my marriage year and am looking to stash a way some port!

....and the year my 1st child was born!

[jdaw1]

I’m moderately excited as 2008 is the hundredth anniversary of the Ideal Home Exhibition, and, more entertainingly, of the mostly-fictional wager of Harry Bensley.

[uncle tom]

Well, while Julian is hanging out the flags for the centenary of the Ideal Home Exhibition, I'm keeping my beady little eyes on a little weather system that's starting to brew between Cape Verde and Dakar..

Each to his own, I suppose...

Tom

[Frederick Blais]

Haven't got any exciting news yet on 2008. Normally when I chat with farmers, producers during the year, you can feel the excitement when a good vintage is on the way. So far, I did not notice anything about 2008. I'll try to get some fresh news, or in 2 weeks, we should know more.

[mosesbotbol]

Could care less about whether 2008 will be a vintage year. Sorry to rain on the parade.

[uncle tom]

Could care less about whether 2008 will be a vintage year. Sorry to rain on the parade.

Why?

Tom

[Andy Velebil]

Could care less about whether 2008 will be a vintage year. Sorry to rain on the parade.

Moses
You feeling ok buddy?

[RonnieRoots]

I care a lot. Hope that it will be a good vintage, or at least that some good SQVP's will be produced.

[mosesbotbol]

My lack of caring about 2008 is because I am still buying pre-2000 vintages and do not know when or if I will ever be buying 2008's.

I would like every season to be a banner year in the Douro.

If 2008's come out in 2010, I wait 20 years to drink them, that's 2030 at a minimum. I will be over 60 years old and will hopefully have a fully stocked cellar by then. There are/will be plenty of great vintages to buy, and the way pricing is on new vintages, I see little to get excited about.

[uncle tom]

If 2008's come out in 2010, I wait 20 years to drink them, that's 2030 at a minimum. I will be over 60 years old and will hopefully have a fully stocked cellar by then. There are/will be plenty of great vintages to buy, and the way pricing is on new vintages, I see little to get excited about.

Build as if you will live forever, live as if you will die tomorrow! (- variously attributed..)

- A much easier mantra than worrying about whether you'll live long enough to drink your cellar!

Tom

[mosesbotbol]

If 2008's come out in 2010, I wait 20 years to drink them, that's 2030 at a minimum. I will be over 60 years old and will hopefully have a fully stocked cellar by then. There are/will be plenty of great vintages to buy, and the way pricing is on new vintages, I see little to get excited about.

Build as if you will live forever, live as if you will die tomorrow! (- variously attributed..)

- A much easier mantra than worrying about whether you'll live long enough to drink your cellar!

Tom

I am going to keep building, just concentrating on vintages that are not that current.

[Frederick Blais]

I got some news today from 2 sources. One that is mostly coming around small producers and the other one from reputable port house. Both friends are not everyday in the field but involved closely in the market and in touch with growers/producers on a weekly basis at least.

So far, the echos of a warm spring, wet and cool summer are not creating excitement of a perfect announced vintage. As one said, "you could have the best set up today and then 2 weeks of rain in september can ruin it all". So right now, the condition are not perfect for port but they can get better and the chance of declaring a vintage quality harvest is not ruled out by any mean.

Some farmers should start to harvest the white grapes this week.

[DRT]

It is not long now before we can ask them directly in the Douro

It will also be interesting to gauge the level of enthusiasm for declaring 2007. It seems that most, if not all, shippers have been making encouraging noises about that vintage but I wonder what impact the current economic climate will have on their decision to declare. 2008 certainly doesn't seem to have had the best of weather conditions so far so it may prove to be too difficult not to declare 2007, despite the fact that a larger than average proportion of the vintage may be difficult to sell immediately. Maybe we can look forward to seeing lots of ex-cellars 2007 VPs hit the market in 2017

[Andy Velebil]

If 2008 doesn't pan out for a general overall declaration it will have been 5 years since the last one in '03. Which means they are really due for one. The 2007's, if so declared as people are saying, won't be released for at least another year or more. Time enough for the economy to rebound a little perhaps. Or a great scoring wine for less than a $100/bottle is a great deal when compared to Bordeaux, Napa Cab's, and other dry wines right now.

[DRT]

The 2007's, if so declared as people are saying, won't be released for at least another year or more.

Andy, If 2007 is declared it will happen in April 2009, only 7 months from now, and the wine merchants here in the UK will begin selling it almost immediately. Shipping may take another 6 months but they will begin collecting cash in April or May.

[Andy Velebil]

although "futures" are done on Burgandy and Bordeaux here, I've generally not seen it on Vintage Ports...yet. Then again, unless the prices for futures are that much better (like they are for Bordeaux) I'll just wait until they hit the shelves and then find the cheapest prices. But for us, they won't hit the shelves until toward the end of next year. But, if they are declared, they won't even bottle them for almost another year still.

[DRT]

But, if they are declared, they won't even bottle them for almost another year still.

They will be bottled in the spring/summer of 2009, possibly even before the declaration is announced. By then they will have had their "2 winters in wood" and will be ready to bottle. A few shippers might wait until 2010 but 99% of the VP I see has a bottling year which is the vintage + 2 years.

[Andy Velebil]

Considering we are still in August.....that is about a year away by my definition

[Andy Velebil]

BTW,
Unless a miracle happens in the next couple of weeks it doesn't look good for a large major declaration, in terms of quality and enough quantity. I would guess and say 2008 will probably have some very good SQVPs.

[Frederick Blais]

BTW,
Unless a miracle happens in the next couple of weeks it doesn't look good for a large major declaration, in terms of quality and enough quantity. I would guess and say 2008 will probably have some very good SQVPs.

Well even though we have great quality, it is doubtful '08 will be declared for many reasons. 2007 is probably one of them, hype of the season, market etc.

I got news from two growers today. One in Valley Mendiz and the other one in the Douro Superior. Both are witnessing great variation in the maturity of their grapes within the same rows.

In the Douro Superior, some will start to harvest from next week as for Valley Mendiz this grower was hoping for rain within the few days to then get sun and start harvesting from the 3rd week of September.

[Andy Velebil]

I got news from two growers today. One in Valley Mendiz and the other one in the Douro Superior. Both are witnessing great variation in the maturity of their grapes within the same rows.

I too have heard this from a couple of different producers now. The growing season has been spotty and uneven and that means a lot of sorting when grapes are picked and reduced overall yields. Not good for a general decalration, but good for smaller batches of SQVPs or to put toward Colheita's or future tawny blends.

[uncle tom]

Well, the broad atlantic depression I commented on twelve days ago pulled itself together and turned into hurricane Gustav, whose remnants are not, I think, a threat. A couple more storms (Hanna & Ike) have also formed, and could cause problems; but the one I'm worried about was the system I saw forming off the coast of Dakar, which has now been christened Josephine.

The trajectory and timing of this system poses a significant threat to the european vintage, as it could easily swing round without making landfall in the US, and come crashing into europe at exactly the wrong time - you can track its progress here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.sh ... y#contents

Besides that, the weather forecasts are looking very fair, although possibly a little too dry - previous forecasts of rain do not appear to have materialised.

The reports of uneven ripening are a worry, but not a death sentence - the vintage reports from '94 mention similar problems, but no-one complained about the outcome!

Tom

[Frederick Blais]

The reports of uneven ripening are a worry, but not a death sentence - the vintage reports from '94 mention similar problems, but no-one complained about the outcome!

Tom

Though I think that 94 was way hotter. A grower told me that in August the nights were especially cold, which is unusual. His crop seems normal regarding to quantity, just 2 weeks late at the moment. We'll go and visit him togheter btw

[uncle tom]

A grower told me that in August the nights were especially cold, which is unusual. His crop seems normal regarding to quantity, just 2 weeks late at the moment. We'll go and visit him togheter btw

Cool nights were cited as a reason to declare 2007 - in the rather premature statements made last year..

I'm really looking forward to meeting you Fred - my thanks to you and Derek for making the arrangements..!

Tom

[Glenn E.]

I'll be meeting you as well on that Sunday!

I can't wait for this trip, it's going to be a blast!

[DRT]

I can't wait to get out there again. I'm starting to think 2 trips per year isn't enough

[uncle tom]

Well, what a difference a day can make..

The last couple of days have been rainy in the Douro, and given the long run of seemingly dry weather, that rain was probably welcome; but yesterday the outlook was very poor, with a drenching from the remains of Hanna expected at the end of next week, and the legacy of Josephine rolling in at the start of harvest.

But storms are masters of surprise!

Tropical storm Hanna is currently running up the US east coast and is now expected to sling shot rapidly across the atlantic, tracking further north than previously forecast, and crashing into the UK next Thursday (as if we need the rain.. )

Hurricane Ike is now forecast to run into the Gulf of Mexico and is headed directly towards - you guessed it - New Orleans... It will almost certainly be dissipated by the US mainland thereafter.

But the really good news is that Josephine has quite suddenly given up, and dissipated in mid-Atlantic..

The forecast for harvest in the Douro is now very much improved...

Looking at the satellite maps, there is little indication of serious threats on the horizon. There is quite a lot of activity over the African west coast, but it is fairly well south, and shows little sign of developing into a maritime system at this point.

So, fingers crossed..!

Tom

[Frederick Blais]

Received an email today from a grower. "raining hard" for the last 2 days was his words. It did not seem to worried and just said that his harvest start date could be push further.

[DRT]

I'm in the Douro. Weather is nice but cold. Grapes are very healthy so far and full of freshness.

All best from a sunny Noval where we have a great harvest just getting under way

[DRT]

We have started picking our white grapes and some for making red wine. Nothing for port yet. It is sunny but cool, which at this stage is just fine. The grapes are very healthy and the quality potential is excellent. But we have at least 5 weeks more of Vindima. Best, Christian.

[RonnieRoots]

Good to hear some positive news. Fingers crossed!

[uncle tom]

So far this month the weather has been pretty good, punctuated only by heavy rain on the 21st. Reports from Fred suggest that the rain did not unduly worry the producers, and the weather since seems to have been bright and sunny.

Forecasts of rain this weekend have thankfully evaporated, and the forecast for the rest of the month is now looking very good indeed. With the vintage running late, this is now the critical period for harvesting the best port grapes.

The Symingtons have now published their 'Insider' report for August, which concludes on quite a bullish note. The weather hoped for at the conclusion of that report seems to have been delivered, so it will be very interesting to see the initial reports from the producers over the next few weeks

Tom

http://www.thevintageportsite.com/vinta ... .aspx?pg=8

[DRT]

Throughout the Douro weather has been dry and warm since we arrived, and reportedly for some days before. Even in Superior, eg at Meao, harvest not yet finished. But growers speak more highly of 2007.

[DRT]

At Tedo. Mostly picked, except Franca, which starts Monday. Phenolic ripeness better than sugar ripeness. Weather warm and dry.

[jdaw1]

And it was dry and comfortably warm in Porto when I left this morning.

[uncle tom]

The conditions during harvest seem to have been just about perfect over the last fortnight, but the forecast is now looking more problematic.

The BBC maps indicate a fine day Monday with a band of heavy rain sweeping across on Tuesday, while Accuweather reckon there may be showers Monday and a fine day Tuesday - take your pick!

Overall, the '08 growing season seems to have been less problematic than '07, and the conditions through harvest have been much more benign.

In other respects, the two years have quite a lot in common, both of them cooler than usual and running late as a result.

While the cheerleaders for another '7' vintage seem content to dismiss the '08's before they've even finished fermenting, I would reckon there's a sporting chance that declarable wines are being made this year, although I would be surprised if it proved to be a blockbuster.

The valleys of the Douro may feel a world away from the harsh realities of the current credit crisis, but the people who buy their products are very much in the thick of it. The UK wine merchants are now resigned to a dire Christmas season, and the seasonal sales figures may well take the wind out of the producer's sails.

The producers have a long history of avoiding declarations during recessions, and got their fingers burnt when they declared the 80's into a relatively minor downturn in 1982.

While some argue that an '07 declaration is now inevitable, it would seem insane to launch a new declaration when the principal markets for VP are in economic meltdown, especially if the wines from '08 are good enough to declare instead; when, hopefully, things are a little more settled the following year.

Whilst it can be argued that the producers need the declaration to help with their own credit issues, a declaration that flops in the market place would present them with an even greater dilemma..

Tom

[DRT]

Many of the large shippers now bottle SQVP in non-classic years but do not release them into the market for 8 years after bottling. Bottling and storing a classic vintage carries exactly the same investment and ongoing cost as it would for an SQVP. If the market turns out to be as depressed as Tom suggests it will be in early 09 then the shippers could declare a classic vintage but release none or just a small amount into the market and save the bulk for a time when conditions are better suited to selling it.

I simply don't believe that classic VP income is that critical to the cash-flow of the big boys. There just isn't enough of it to be that important when comared with their other mass market premium styles such as SQVP, LBV and premium ruby. I accept that this is not the same for the smaller producers but the big houses will not be basing their strategies on what is good for their smaller cousins.

The bottom line is, if it is good enough to declare then it should be declared. When to release it is, for me, a separate debate.

...and I haven't seen or heard one report that would make me think it would be a good idea to skip 07 and wait for 08

Derek

[uncle tom]

The late release of some SQ's is specifically focused on meeting the needs of supermarkets; who want freshly labelled bottles in sufficient quantity, and of an age that is sufficiently impressive to the customers as to make them shell out around £15-£20/bottle.

For the wines from the declared vintages, the producers now seem hell bent on getting VP sold and drunk while it's still in nappies; blending approachable wines to the detriment (I fear..) of their long term prospects.

Don't forget that the press releases after the '07 vintage celebrated the performance of grape varieties that make short lived wines..

Hanging on to most of it was not the plan.

Tom