Vintage countdown

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 18:24 Sun 11 Jul 2010

So, here we go again..!

2010 is a bit special, in that a declaration is clearly wanted from this year, IF the climate is sufficiently benign..

2009 enjoyed a fine vintage, until the weather broke, which was, for the Symingtons; the very last day of harvesting..

The weather was then decidedly rough and unsettled, but also usefully wet, until the 2010 flowering began; at which point the climate appears to have behaved itself, and decent weather has been the norm thereafter.

The current prospect is for a good harvest from a quantity perspective, and while quantity and quality tend to be natural foes in port production, there have been some notable exceptions, where quantity and quality have run hand in hand - such as 1927..

Having had very good reports, and an exceptional cask sample (Malvedos), from 2009; it is clear that 2010 has a very tough act to follow. However, at this early stage; there is nothing to stop this from becoming an excellent vintage.

Tom

Post by **DRT** » 20:40 Sun 11 Jul 2010

Tom,

When did you taste the 2009 Malvedos cask sample? I haven't had the opportunity to taste any 2009s yet so am interested to know what it was like.

Derek

Andy Velebil · Post by **Andy Velebil** » 00:46 Mon 12 Jul 2010

A big worry right now is odium and mildew. With so much rain over the winter, when the temp goes up it's making it very humid and that is a worry for sure. But as you mentioned, some good weather during flowering, so that was a plus for sure.

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 07:23 Mon 12 Jul 2010

When did you taste the 2009 Malvedos cask sample? I haven't had the opportunity to taste any 2009s yet so am interested to know what it was like.

In the lodge a couple of weeks ago. Not as perfumed as the '08, but the purity and tannic structure really stood out. A classic, I think.

I also spoke to Dirk, who reported that '09 was an excellent port year. He was less enthused about his table wines however.

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 20:23 Wed 28 Jul 2010

June was warm, but wetter than usual; Johnny Symington's VPS report makes fascinating reading (as always..) - but seems a little pessimistic..

http://www.thevintageportsite.com/vinta ... .aspx?pg=6

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 10:53 Fri 30 Jul 2010

Weather reports indicate that the intense heat that defines almost every great port vintage has arrived...

..but are the fungal issues under control?

- Anyone had a chance to look at the vines recently?

Tom

Roy Hersh · Post by **Roy Hersh** » 23:51 Mon 02 Aug 2010

2009 produced fantastic quantities and yields were the highest in possibly a decade.

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 08:06 Tue 03 Aug 2010

2009 produced fantastic quantities and yields were the highest in possibly a decade

Roy,

Did you mean to say quality rather than quantity?

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 06:47 Sat 14 Aug 2010

Well, things have been rather quiet. Conditions are still very hot, but the extreme heat and humidity that must have made any sort of work in the Douro unbearable, seem to have eased slightly.

Thanks to Oscar (http://quevedoportwine.com/) we have our opening report from the front line, and it's looking like a late harvest. Veraison is not yet complete, and potential alcohol levels are lower than in recent years.

Some rain is needed, but there is little prospect before next Wednesday, and even then the forecasters are not agreed as to whether the passing clouds are likely to precipitate. Further afield, the hurricane season is very benign, without a single tropical depression at this point

Elsewhere in the world there is a fair amount of gloom about 2010 - the Californians are already talking about the summer that never was, and some Burgundian growers suffered a grievous amount of vine mortality at the hands of an extreme frost on Dec 20th.

Commentary from Bordeaux always seems focused on the eternal squabbles between the producers and their regulatory bodies, but there seems to be almost a law of omerta when it comes to talking about the upcoming vintage. Does anyone in Bordeaux have an up to date blog on the harvest there?

Tom

Andy Velebil · Post by **Andy Velebil** » 22:49 Sat 14 Aug 2010

uncle tom wrote:
Elsewhere in the world there is a fair amount of gloom about 2010 - the Californians are already talking about the summer that never was,

Tom,
Overall, many parts of California have been relatively cool this summer, one of the coolest I can recall in the Southern California region. The info you mention about gloom here is the fault of many wine publications that don't put out the complete facts. A topic of discussion among my Cali wine friends here.

Like the Douro, the California wine area is vast, actually very very vast, stretching from near Los Angeles all the way up to Humbolt County hundreds of miles away. Like the Douro, California has many micro climates so areas like Napa where things are generally a bit behind schedule, but only by a week or two from normal, to areas like Paso Robles where things are doing fine. Actually many people are happy about the cooler summer as they would like to see Napa Cab's return to their older lower ABV's...but that's another topic.

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 16:27 Mon 16 Aug 2010

Although Wednesday will be cloudy, it now appears unlikely to rain. Beyond that, the forecasts for the rest of the month indicate cloudless skies, average temperatures and moderate humidity; with little likelihood of any rain.

Whilst that may be a recipe for some raisining and reduction in yield, it looks moderately promising from the quality standpoint; as such conditions should not provoke further fungal attack.

If the early days of September can muster some rain to refresh the vines, and then stay clear for vintage; we could see some sound wines made.

Tom

Glenn E. · Post by **Glenn E.** » 16:56 Tue 17 Aug 2010

An interesting blog post by Oscar regarding the effect (if any) that all of the forest fires might have on the vintage: Quevedo Port Wine

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 17:51 Tue 17 Aug 2010

Interesting. Dew tends to bring smoke down to earth that hasn't blown away, so if there are dews now, and not enough rain to rinse the grapes later; it could have an influence.

However, in moderation, smokey notes are not unpleasant, and in many ways it is quite appealing to have a distinctive signature to the vintage.

Tom

oscar quevedo · Post by **oscar quevedo** » 13:55 Thu 19 Aug 2010

Weather keeps cooling off but forecasts show a new heat wave for the weekend. No signals of rain yet. It would be helpful not only for irrigating the vines but as Tom points, to rinse the dust.

The risk of fire in the north of Portugal is being reduce, so probably no more fires will occur in the Douro and surrounding areas before harvest. But the number of fires we had in the last 4 weeks will be enough to teach us about the influence of the smoke in the Port Wine.

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 14:45 Thu 19 Aug 2010

The forecast is certainly looking very settled and dry, although there's an area of rain, currently predicted to hit Bordeaux on Tuesday, that might give some rain on Monday night if it tracks just a little further south than is currently projected.

There is a fair amount of cloud formation south of Cape Verde - the cradle of many hurricanes, and atlantic weather systems; but no cyclonic formations are visible on the satellite photos.

The weather could well remain dry through the first week of September.

Tom

RonnieRoots · Post by **RonnieRoots** » 06:51 Fri 20 Aug 2010

Hi Oscar,

Are the fires worse now than they were in 2003 and 2005? I remember being in the Douro in 05 when the fires were at their worst and the valley (around Foz Coa) was completely filled with smoke. In those ports it doesn't seem to have a negative effect. Or was there enough rain after the fires in those years to rinse the dust off?

Cheers!
Ronald

oscar quevedo · Post by **oscar quevedo** » 14:25 Fri 20 Aug 2010

Hi Ronald, this is a good point. In 2003 the total burnt area was 372k ha, while in 2005 117k. This year forecasts point at 100k ha, lower than any of these two years. But in both 2003 and 2005 it rained before the starting of the harvest, helping rinsing the grapes.

marc j. · Post by **marc j.** » 01:34 Sat 21 Aug 2010

Hey Oscar,

Have you seen any raisining of the grapes? Or possibly, is the ground water suppy sufficent to provide the vines with the needed mositure?

Marc

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 11:56 Sat 21 Aug 2010

The tail end of the weather system headed for France and the UK now looks likely to make landfall on the northwest corner of Iberia, but while Porto is likely to get rain on Monday and Tuesday, it is less certain as to how much (if any) will clear the mountains and reach the quintas. A light shower or two looks more likely than a soaking.

The cloud mass south of Cape Verde is now creeping west, and while there is still no sign of it becoming cyclonic, it is quite substantial. At this point it looks more likely to be sucked into the Atlantic slingshot and come to europe in 2-3 weeks time; than to be drawn into the American mainland.

If it becomes cyclonic, there's a risk it could be damaging; otherwise, there's a sporting chance of some timely pre-harvest refreshment.

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 18:43 Sat 21 Aug 2010

The Douro Insider Report for July has just been published - a must read, as usual..

http://www.thevintageportsite.com/vinta ... .aspx?pg=7

Interesting to contrast Oscar's observations with those of the Symingtons - it appears some areas are running late, while others are slightly early..

..whilst different altitudes have different calendars, it seems a little strange that some quintas appear ahead of their respective norms, while others are behind..

I think someone once observed that the Douro has nine months of winter, and three months of hell - this year is looking true to form!

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 01:04 Mon 23 Aug 2010

The odd shower looks fairly likely this afternoon, but there is little chance of anything substantial. Might be enough to rinse some of the smoke off the grapes though..

The Portuguese Meteo forecast reckons on some rain for the 31st - 1st; but this rather depends on Iberia catching the edge of a weather system that otherwise looks set to pass to the north. Accuweather reckons it will stay dry.

The cloud mass I've been tracking for the last few days has now become cyclonic, and has been christened tropical storm Danielle. There's currently no great fury in this system, as it heads slowly towards Bermuda. It still looks unlikely that this system will make landfall on the mainland US, and the storm (or its remnants) will probably reach europe about a week into September.

Behind Danielle can be seen the genesis of another storm, but this is forming further south, and is therefore more likely to eventually find its way into the mainland.

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 14:16 Mon 23 Aug 2010

Hmm..

Johnny Symington - Douro insider:

"Veraison came relatively early this year .."

Cynthia, on behalf of Charles Symington - Malvedos blog:

"..pintor ”“ the moment the grape colour begins to change from green to red ”“ was a week later than average, and the latest Charles could call to mind in his career"

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Pintor is simply the Portuguese word for the French Veraison

Tom

Post by **DRT** » 22:15 Mon 23 Aug 2010

It is possible that Charles and Johnny are taking about different quintas in different regions of the Douro. Have you posted a question on these blogs?

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 22:53 Mon 23 Aug 2010

It is possible that Charles and Johnny are taking about different quintas in different regions of the Douro

To be fair, Charles is focused on Malvedos, while Johnny tackles the Douro as a whole.

Have you posted a question on these blogs

The VPS site has stopped responding to consumer enquiries; but i've made a post on the Malvedos comments blog..

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 23:01 Mon 23 Aug 2010

Danielle is getting more feisty, and is pulling to the east much faster than expected..

..more likely now to come on strong into europe..

Tom

oscar quevedo · Post by **oscar quevedo** » 07:31 Tue 24 Aug 2010

marc j. wrote:Hey Oscar,

Have you seen any raisining of the grapes? Or possibly, is the ground water suppy sufficent to provide the vines with the needed mositure?

Marc

Hi Marc, we have noticed some sunburn in Quinta da Alegria, which is different from raisining. As you may know, raisining comes after full maturation, while sunburn is the result of an excess of sun over the skin of the grapes, few weeks ahead of the complete maturation.

Regarding the question about water supply in the soil, there is probably enough water in Cima Corgo sub-region, but in Douro Superior, which is drier and hotter, the levels are low. Also rain would help to settle down dust of the vineyards.

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 08:12 Tue 24 Aug 2010

Danielle has now been uprated to hurricane status.

Cloud gathering to form the next system has moved closer to Cape Verde, so could now generate a significant storm as far as europe is concerned. It also looks big, and will probably be christened 'Earl' before long.

Meteo are no longer forecasting rain at the end of the month, and Accuweather are predicting high temperatures as we move into September.

Tom

Update: Danielle strengthening rapidly, now Category 2, and more expected.

Andy Velebil · Post by **Andy Velebil** » 13:06 Wed 25 Aug 2010

uncle tom wrote:
It is possible that Charles and Johnny are taking about different quintas in different regions of the Douro
To be fair, Charles is focused on Malvedos, while Johnny tackles the Douro as a whole.

Have you posted a question on these blogs
The VPS site has stopped responding to consumer enquiries; but i've made a post on the Malvedos comments blog..

Tom

A reply explaining the slight differences Tom mentions was posted on the Graham's Blog

Well spotted Tom! Both are correct in their respective contexts. Bear in mind: in this blog, unless we state differently, we speak solely about the five quintas that make Graham’s Port (3 clustered on river bank near Tua, one on the Rio Torto, one in Douro Superior on the river east of Vesuvio), whereas the Douro Insider is a digest of our viticulturalist’s (Miles Edlmann’s) observations across all 25 Symington quintas, from Lamego (south of Régua) to the far northeast corner of the DOC area. Hence general observations and conclusions can be slightly different. On our Terroir page is a map which marks all our quintas ”“ take a look, seeing it will explain a lot, I think. Thanks for being such an attentive reader!

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 13:48 Wed 25 Aug 2010

..and it has been confirmed that Miles Edlmann is indeed the author of the 'Douro Insider' and not Johnny Symington, as I had previously thought.

I don't know if any useful rain actually fell this week in the Douro - the Meteo's 'Risco de Incendio' map was taken down a notch or two for the coastal areas yesterday, but was little changed further inland - http://www.meteo.pt/pt/ambiente/risco_i ... fwi_d1.xml

No rain on the immediate horizon is forecast, and there's plenty more heat predicted, well into September..

It's not clear at present where hurricane Danielle will end up. There appears to be a weather pattern change imminent, with a small system predicted to stall and fill in mid atlantic, immediately prior to Danielle's arrival. The system following Danielle, which is likely to be named today; is looking broadly similar in size and trajectory, and is about 4-5 days behind.

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 22:23 Wed 25 Aug 2010

Earl has been christened, and looks set to take a slightly wider arc..

..if the hot weather brings the harvest forward; Earl (or the remains of it..) could be an issue..

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 08:59 Fri 27 Aug 2010

And still the outlook is dry, with much of the Douro on maximum fire alert.

The Meteo forecast is predicting some rain on the first of September, but from the maps I doubt there will be much. The other forecasters are only predicting cloud.

Danielle, now a Cat.3 hurricane; will slingshot across the Atlantic next week, but the eye now looks likely to pass slightly to the north of the Azores, on a ENE trajectory.

This is slightly too far to the north. However, as the storm passes over cooler water, it is likely that some rain bearing cloud will spin away from the centre; so there might yet be some hope of rain.

Earl has yet to get beyond tropical storm status, and currently looks set to graze the east coast of the US towards the end of next week. It now looks much less threatening than before.

Another big storm is now in the making, about four days behind Earl, forming to the southwest of the Cape Verde islands. The cloud mass is moving fairly rapidly to the west, so this one may be more likely to cause trouble in the Caribbean or US.

Tom

Post by **DRT** » 09:08 Fri 27 Aug 2010

I spoke to Dom Symngton last night and he tells me they have had some heavy rain in Porto but nothing has yet managed to cross the mountains into the Douro. Apparently the temperature is starting to fall and the baking heat of summer seems to have gone.

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 10:50 Fri 27 Aug 2010

IMPORTANT!

The US National hurricane center has just updated it's projections for Danielle.

It is now uprated to a category 4 hurricane, one less than the highest category, and although still projected to pass north of the Azores, it is now expected to travel almost due east as it does so.

It is also expected to cross the Atlantic with considerable speed between Tuesday and Thursday next week.

If it tracks to the southern side of the forecast error margins, it could stay on warm water.

This means there is a risk of a direct hit on Portugal as a full blown storm.

Bookmark this link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... k#contents

Tom

Post by **DRT** » 11:16 Fri 27 Aug 2010

Good find Tom! It certainly looks threatening given the projected path over the pond.

Should we change your user name to "Storm Chaser"

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 09:49 Sat 28 Aug 2010

Wow! What a change of forecast!

Less than 24hrs ago Danielle was headed straight for Regua, but now it's more likely to hit Reykjavik!

The NHC are usually pretty good, but this revision takes the path way outside of their error margins.

The Met office (who only project five days forward) agree that it will probably slip north, and also now agree with the Meteo in that a little rain is likely in the middle of next week. Accuweather, however, still think it will stay hot and dry for the forseeable future.

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 14:32 Tue 31 Aug 2010

Well, some rain should arrive in Porto this evening, and the consensus of the forecasters is that it WILL cross the Marao this time, to provide some rain in the Douro tomorrow..

..but whether there will be enough to breathe some life back into the vines remains to be seen.

- Feedback from the front line would be most welcome!

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 09:31 Wed 01 Sep 2010

Well, there is currently rain in Spain, and it's falling mostly on the plain..

..but how much has fallen in the Douro along the way?

Tom

Dom Symington · Post by **Dom Symington** » 12:33 Wed 01 Sep 2010

No rain yet! Yesterday evening threatened thunder and showers in Porto and we had a few huge drops of rain but no clearing of the air. Nothing at all in the Douro.
I’ve just spoken to Vesuvio and although a little cooler (relative) there is no sign of rain at the moment although the forecast does show some rain for the interior North of the country. So long as it’s not hail or really heavy thunderstorms!

Dom Symington · Post by **Dom Symington** » 12:35 Wed 01 Sep 2010

on an entirely different subject ... why am I tagged with Cruz Ruby??? ... a fine bottle but not quite what I normally keep at home!

Andy Velebil · Post by **Andy Velebil** » 13:10 Wed 01 Sep 2010

Dom Symington wrote:on an entirely different subject ... why am I tagged with Cruz Ruby??? ... a fine bottle but not quite what I normally keep at home!

You must not be drinking enough Port, we can help in that regard

After "x" number of posts you are automatically upgraded to the next bottle, which slowly increases in quality. So don't feel bad, I've over a 1,000 posts and I'm only a 1991 Morgan VP

Derek on the other hand, at over 6,000, is now a 1970 Dow's

And thanks for the weather update!

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 13:17 Wed 01 Sep 2010

Thanks for the update Dom, sorry the news isn't better.

Hurricane Danielle has now dispersed over cooler water, but it's remnants may yet generate some rainfall after the weekend, although there's no great certainty of that.

Hurricane Earl is still predicted to cause trouble up the east coast of the US, but after that is currently projected to head toward the arctic, where it would quickly fill and disperse. Behind that is a storm named Fiona, which is currently on a projection to pass just west of Bermuda. This makes it less likely to be useful, but things can change..

There is another storm brewing, which is likely to be named Gaston before long. At the moment it is WSW of Cape Verde, and is moving quite slowly. My best guess is that this one will track a little further to the east than Fiona, but it's leisurely pace suggests that any succour it may give to the european vintage is unlikely to arrive much before the 15th, and possibly several days after that..

why am I tagged with Cruz Ruby???

The more posts you make, the better it gets..!

Tom

Dom Symington · Post by **Dom Symington** » 13:22 Wed 01 Sep 2010

well, well, well, that's certainly an incentive ... thanks.
I shall have to see if the site administrator is bribeable!

Andy Velebil · Post by **Andy Velebil** » 13:37 Wed 01 Sep 2010

Dom Symington wrote: I shall have to see if the site administrator is bribeable!

I heard he likes Pink Port

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 15:23 Wed 01 Sep 2010

I heard he likes Pink Port

- Don't be mean!

"Malvedos 2009 cask sample" would look much better than "Cruz ruby" - and I'm sure that admin could be very easily bribed..

..pity I'm not the admin', really...

Tom

Post by **DRT** » 15:36 Wed 01 Sep 2010

Dom Symington wrote:well, well, well, that's certainly an incentive ... thanks.
I shall have to see if the site administrator is bribeable!

Can I just make it absolutely clear that I (and I think the other Admins) are open to bribery on this subject. Anyone who wants to send me a case of Graham's 63 will be instantly promoted to that rank.

Other ranks are available...Taylor 55; Noval Nacional 31; Ferreira 1815...etc

KillerB · Post by **KillerB** » 08:07 Thu 02 Sep 2010

Site Administrator is eminently bribable. Just name your Port

Dom Symington · Post by **Dom Symington** » 11:19 Thu 02 Sep 2010

rather like Churchill said ... now that we've established the fact it's all a matter of the price!
I can see a serious challenge coming my way during the vintage.

Cooled considerably in Porto today. I'll get an update from the Douro later (and an excuse for another post!)

Post by **DRT** » 11:34 Thu 02 Sep 2010

Congratulations, Dom! You have now hit 10 posts and been automatically promoted to "Cheap Ruby"

We will entirely understand if you do not wish to discuss the relative position of this rank above that which you held previously

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 22:47 Thu 02 Sep 2010

There were some notable storms in Portugal yesterday, but only a little seems to have fallen in the Douro valley.

Every vintage can be viewed from two perspectives, one of quantity and the other quality; and the factors that favour the respective camps differ significantly.

The great heat and prolonged dry weather that we have seen, tend to favour quality; but I have been told today that we are probably past the point where this is now beneficial.

The good news is that there is a decent prospect of some rain after the weekend, without any obvious threat of attendant stormy conditions.

If that is followed by a week or more of fresh, dry and breezy weather; there seems still to be a chance that we could see that elusive mix of both quantity and quality.

Looking at past vintage reports, I note a close similarity between this year (so far), and Richard Mayson's account of 1996 - a year that I feel was probably declarable, but lost in a run of good vintages.

It would be very interesting if Dom, or someone else in the trade; could highlight where the years differ.

Tom

uncle tom · Post by **uncle tom** » 09:20 Fri 03 Sep 2010

While most of the Douro has seen little or no rain of late, a violent hail laden storm has hit Alijo, which lies about 10km (as the crow flies) north east of Pinhao.

The storm was bad enough to feature on Portuguese TV news, and there are pictures of shredded vines and grapes in the bulletin. Oscar has posted a link on his site.

There are no famous port quintas in the immediate vicinity of Alijo; the closest being Passadouro, which lies about 5km away.

Tom