Vintage countdown

[uncle tom]

The good news is that all the forecasters are saying that there will be some rain in the Douro tomorrow and on Tuesday, and the better news is that the outlook thereafter is very benign.

But will there be enough rain to re-invigorate the vines, and prompt them to complete their maturation?

"Chuva moderada" says the Meteo

Tom

[uncle tom]

A bullish update has just been posted on the Malvedos blog

http://malvedos.wordpress.com/

Tom

[uncle tom]

The Douro insider report for August has been published

http://www.thevintageportsite.com/vinta ... .aspx?pg=8

In summary: Despite record breaking heat and drought, the vines are holding up well due to plentiful ground water.

The current immediate forecast is for more dry weather, but looking further afield; there is currently a storm in the making right on top of Cape Verde. The timing and position of this system is potentially dangerous, so I shall be watching it carefully..

Tom

[uncle tom]

All the commentary coming my way is sounding increasingly confident - provided the weather doesn't spoil the party; there's a good chance of a sound declarable vintage.

Worries about fungal issues earlier in the year seem to have been put to rest by the exceptionally long dry summer. Sugar levels have been a little on the low side due to the prolonged heat, but with cooler fine weather, they now seem to be catching up; and there's plenty of history of fine vintages being a little late on parade. The plentiful ground water, it would seem, is saving the day.

The forecast for the next ten days is good, although Accuweather is a bit negative for the days following. However, it's not obvious where they think any rain might be coming from at that point.

The storm I'm watching has now been named Igor, and is still quite small and slow moving; however it's track is more to the north than most, so it could yet prove troublesome..

Tom

[Andy Velebil]

All the commentary coming my way is sounding increasingly confident - provided the weather doesn't spoil the party; there's a good chance of a sound declarable vintage.

Worries about fungal issues earlier in the year seem to have been put to rest by the exceptionally long dry summer. Sugar levels have been a little on the low side due to the prolonged heat, but with cooler fine weather, they now seem to be catching up; and there's plenty of history of fine vintages being a little late on parade. The plentiful ground water, it would seem, is saving the day.

Good to hear things overall are looking good and I also hope the weather doesn't dramatically change and wreak havoc. However, fungal issues have affected a number of areas. From producers I've spoken to it seems to be mostly in the more western areas (Baixo and Cima Corgo) areas. But some small fungal issues have also affected grapes in the Douro Superior as well. However, in some of these effected areas overall yields are up so that is helping to offset some of the damage. I realize this is being a bit broad, but then again, the Douro is a vast area with many many micro climates.

[uncle tom]

A number of weather systems have started forming over the last day or so, which look likely to try the nerves of the growers..

- A narrow band of rain is forming between Madeira and the Canaries, which is projected to come up via Lisbon in the middle of the week. This may or may not reach the Douro.

- A big squall has formed mid way between Bermuda and the Azores, this will probably be drawn into another system headed for the UK and France, but might swing lower.

(I don't have any vintage reports from France, but did hear that some parts got over 100mm of rain the other day - they must be desperate for a period of dry weather now..)

- A big storm is brewing south east of Cape Verde - this could be a bruiser..

- Igor is now a hurricane, and is currently on track to hit Bermuda next weekend; thereafter it is likely to slingshot across the pond without making landfall in the US.

There is also another storm forming up over the Antilles, but this is likely to be lost into the US mainland.

Tom

[DRT]

Just back from a couple of days at Malvedos. The vines are looking absolutely fantastic, really healthy. Maturity is still a little delayed and another few days will make a huge difference ... You had better start saving!!!!

All the best

Dom

[uncle tom]

Sadly, you might need to save for an umbrella first..

The system I previously noted as a potential bruiser of a storm has quite quickly evolved into a Cat 3 hurricane, christened Julia.

Julia is not going to say howdy to Uncle Sam, she's heading into the middle of the pond, and that makes her a major concern.

You can see her projected path for the next few days here:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.sh ... l#contents

To get some idea of where she is likely to go after the weekend, we need to look at the jetstream forecast, which you can view here:

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp

Clicking the tabs for the beginning of next week currently paints a rather sobering picture..

Hopefully, these forecasts will prove wrong...

Tom

Edit: Julia now Category 4

[jdaw1]

Jupiter and Earth are approaching their near-yearly rendezvous, and this time the two planets will be closer together than they have been since 1963. ! Jupiter is currently drawing closer to the inner solar system, including Earth, as it nears perihelion, its closest approach to the sun, in March 2011. On September 20 of this year, Jupiter and Earth will be separated by a mere 591,499,329 kilometers, about 11 million kilometers closer than in 2009

Does Jupiter help the vintage?

[DRT]

Does Jupiter help the vintage?

Only when it is aligned with Uranus.

[jdaw1]

Which it is.

[DRT]

Very early days but grapes in perfect condition. Douro Superior coming in nicely. I saw some superb Tinta Barroca from Vesuvio for table wine yesterday, lovely flavour, very fresh, good graduations.
Malvedos starts Monday. Cavadinha as is expected is a little more backward. I also did Bomfim, looking fantastic and fruit looking exceptional and Alvito, my father's vineyard just above Cavadinha, also perfect and similar to Cavadinha.
The key this year is going to be flexibility in picking schedules because maturities can still be a bit variable although the weather has cooled somewhat, it was only(!) 32ºC. at Malvedos yesterday afternoon... although the mornings are now much cooler.
The rain threatened but didn't appear, some large drops which didn't even settle the dust although the air was noticeably more humid yesterday.

It was interesting to see the effect of the Marão mountains when I drove up early yesterday morning and then back down late evening. From Porto, all the way to Amarante was under heavy cloud and morning mist which became quite thick as I rose up into it climbing the Marão. As soon as I crested the top, at 1,010 mts. and started dropping down to Vila Real it started to clear and when I dropped into the Douro valley it was lovely but with quite a lot of "big fluffy clouds" - actually really beautiful in the early morning light!
On my return in the evening I could see the clear effect of the Marão with huge banks of clouds backed up against the western side of the mountains.

[uncle tom]

This is beginning to look like the vintage of dodged bullets..

..there have been a whole succession of weather systems that have threatened, but not delivered; having swung north to France and the UK, lacked the power to cross the Marao, or like the hail storm that wreaked havoc in Alijo; narrowly missed the target..

There has been some rain in the region, but it appears to have been patchy. Whether or not any quintas have suffered an unhelpful amount of irrigation is unclear at this point.

However, if the reports from Malvedos are echoed across the region, and the weather does not spring any nasty surprises over the next week or so, there seems a high probability that the vintage will be worthy of a declaration.

Tom

[Alex Bridgeman]

It rained a little in the Baixa Corgo on Friday, but barely enough to wet the dust. Saturday was hot and sunny, Sunday cooler and dry. Night time temperatures are cool mid-teens. Today is bright and hazy.

[Deleted_User_1]

It rained a little in the Baixa Corgo on Friday, but barely enough to wet the dust. Saturday was hot and sunny, Sunday cooler and dry. Night time temperatures are cool mid-teens. Today is bright and hazy.

That is absolutely correct...I know... because I was there

[DRT]

There are varying reports on the harvest. Despite a very promising start this seems to be a difficult year with slow and variable maturation. Some producers are having to delay picking to allow the grapes to mature whilst others are already almost finished. It will be interesting to see how this year turns out but from what I've heard over the past few days it will be a surprise if this turns out to be a classic vintage.

...and there are local forecasts of heavy rain coming this weekend

[DRT]

The good weather finally seems to have come to an end in the Douro:

Graham's Blog

Oscar's Blog

[uncle tom]

The good weather finally seems to have come to an end in the Douro

There have been rather mixed messages as to how much rain has fallen, how significant it was, and how much of the harvest had been gathered before the first rain fell; and for those who still have some grapes to pick, there is now the prospect of a few days fine weather.

It will be interesting to see how this year turns out but from what I've heard over the past few days it will be a surprise if this turns out to be a classic vintage

Comparing this year with past vintage reports, the best match I can find is 1970, and I don't think anyone would be disappointed if this season matched that fine vintage; which, incidentally, was only really recognised as a 'classic' vintage when it reached maturity.

It will be interesting to hear the 'official' reports on the vintage from TFP and the Symingtons. With good prices prevailing for fine wines, there is probably a reluctance to contemplate a second declaration interval of more than three years, whilst on the other hand there is the eternal aversion to a two year gap.

I do hope the producers resist the temptation to anoint 2010 as a declaration with indecent haste, and give serious consideration to declaring the 2009 vintage, should those wines show better in the spring.

Tom

[Andy Velebil]

After spending 2 1/2 weeks in the Douro I've had the chance to experience a wide range of it and the diversity it holds. When the rain hit, some places got rain and some didn't, or some got far more than others. Some high up on the ridge had high winds that knocked off some grape bunches while others didn't. Some Quinta's had some good late ripening of the grapes while others were still waiting and praying the grapes would complete maturation before the bad weather hit. A very topsy-turby year for sure.

As the old saying goes.... it's all about location, location, location. And this year that seems to have played a very important role. The assessments I've heard were between a not so good year to a good vintage but unsure if a fully declared year would happen. Keep in mind that's painting a broad picture and in fact it's really too early to state anything definitively until the grapes have had a chance to rest over winter and the first of many evaluations take place. Overall most producers I've spoken to all agreed that this has not been an easy harvest.

One thing to note is due to all the rain last winter yields were generally up quite a bit, 30% or so for some. So that at least gives them more grapes to be very selective with and helps to build up stocks for the lower tier products.

[Roy Hersh]

As I was on the record early on in 2007 directly after experiencing the harvest and stating that I felt it was a worthy year for a general Port declaration, I will be as bold and say that I seriously doubt that will be the case in 2010. Tom's wish for 2009 is seemingly even less likely as producers tend to be more enthusiastic about their 2008s than 2009s from those I am in touch with.

The uneveness in 2010 in the final month of the growing season, with untimely rain, will make this a far better harvest for table wines than Port in my opinion. The Cima Corgo was seemingly finished picking before the Douro Superior and that is not usually the case. The rains were hard and will definitely affect the grape's quality up river.

Look to 2011 and 2012 for the next possible declarations (general declarations of course) but with some solid SQVPs made in both 2009 and 2010, but probably few which will be great. Yes, I realize it is very very early.

Here in Burgundy and Chablis, 2010 is also a decent but not great, difficult year. The 2009 was not easy either but those looking to invest, the 2008s for Chablis have the stuffing (I've tried many) and the 2009 red Burgs look solid from some estates, but it is sporadic as well.

[uncle tom]

The harvest is, now, finally, (possibly?) complete.

A late end to a challenging season, but the final reports from the front line suggest that the last grapes were in good order, with little evidence of impairment from the rain that fell earlier in the month.

It will be very interesting to see how the wines show..

Tom