2011 Declarations

[griff]

Either way, enough houses declaring to call this a general declaration, which it makes it the first '1' year to be generally declared in the two centuries since the system began..

I guess 1931 had too few declaring to count as 'general' and 1991 was split 1991/2.

It is interesting looking at the number of times (or % of times) in which years ending with each digit are declared, to see if there might be any decision bias; The following is a rough count of general declarations for the last century (1901-2000, or 1900-1999, whichever you prefer) for years ending with each digit, with split declarations counted as a half - there might be argument about a few of the years as to whether they were 'general' or not, but the idea holds:

xxx0 5
xxx1 0.5
xxx2 1
xxx3 1
xxx4 2
xxx5 4
xxx6 1
xxx7 3.5
xxx8 1.5
xxx9 0

Overall therefore, it seems far more likely to declare in years ending in 5 and 0.. possible decision bias, though I'm sure the case could be argued for this being a coincidence, especially with 7 also have a decent count. Ok, so lets have a look at the 19th century instead:

xxx0 5
xxx1 2
xxx2 1
xxx3 3
xxx4 3
xxx5 2
xxx6 1
xxx7 3
xxx8 3
xxx9 0

These totals use TPF's list of declared years, as I do not know whether any of them were/were not general declarations. Again, years ending in zero are substantially ahead, though 5's do not feature so prominently. Interestingly again no years ending in 9 declared in this century either.

The lack of vintage declarations ending in 9 may be influenced by the subsequent year ending in 0. That and the perceived wisdom of limiting the number of vintages per decade perhaps.

[Chris Doty]

Uncorked have published their pricing on the Symington 2011.

Interesting data points. I would be a buyer of the 2011 Vesuvio below $70 (all in), but as always, it is difficult to allocate to new production when for $70 you can still find the: 1983 Graham, the 1994 Graham, the 1994 Vesuvio, etc. Unless you're bottling custom Methuselahs, the value proposition is harder to find (even though the vintage seems amazing).

[jdaw1]

For estimates of the likelihood of declaration patterns see the thread Declared - and declarable, some sums...

The first thing one notices is the total absence of consecutive declarations. Are the vines so exhausted after a good year, that they cannot repeat the exercise without taking a rest? The answer, I think, is no.

If 30% of years are declared, what is the probability that a given year is part of a consecutive declaration?

Easy maths. Pick a year that is declared: say x. There is a 70% chance that x”“1 wasn’t declared, and a 70% chance that x+1 wasn’t declared, so a 49% chance that neither neighbour was declared. Hence a 51% chance that one (42%) or both (9%) were declared.

Thus if 30% of years are declared independently of other years, about half of all years should be part of a consecutive (not split, consecutive) declaration. Which suggests that a year being declared is not independent of neighbouring years being declared. As Tom said.

And from Advice please Gentlemen.

the total exclusion of '9' years - try working out the probability of that happening by chance

Let’s assume that each year has a one-in-four chance of being declared, all years identically independently distributed. Then the probability that, during some particular century, no 9s are declared is (3/4)^10 ≈ 5.63%, Improbable, but not special. But the wrong question. What is the probability that there is a digit, whether 9 or something else, such that in some particular century, no year ending in that digit is declared? The answer is obviously 1 - ( ( 1 - ((3/4)^10)) ^ 10 ) ≈ 43.988%. That’s quite likely.

So the existence of a digit such that, during the last century, no years ending in that digit were declared, proves, in round numbers, nothing.

Let me rephrase: what is the probability that, during the nineteen-eighties, only ’80, ’83 and ’85 were general declarations? Answer: 0.2086%. Less than one percent?! Does that prove a conspiracy? Well, what is the probability that, during the nineteen-eighties, exactly three years were general declarations? Answer: 25%. So be careful about probabilities: a more specific question (‟nines?”) has a lower probability, whereas a question better capturing the whole class of perceived unusualness (‟some digit such that!”) has a higher probability.

two recorded centuries when there has been no signficant declaration with a year ending in a 9, and that makes the odds of no '9' years come out at something less than 1000:1

Assuming a constant declaration frequency of one-in-four, the probability that there is a digit such that, over two particular centuries, no year ending in that digit has been declared, is 3.126%. That alone fails a 99% test. And if the probability of declaration was constant at one-in-five, there is a 10.949% chance of observing this outcome, and one-in-six takes that to 23.2%.

So the hypothesis that there is a shippers’ prejudice against some particular digit is statistically unproven.

Much stronger is the hypothesis that they don’t like consecutives.

Which sevens? ’27, ’77, ’97? 1907 no, ’17 I don’t know, ’37 no; ’47 not generally, ’57 no, ’67 not generally, ’87 not generally. Three or four in the last ten decades. Snorey dull.

[jdaw1]

There is a Skeffington, though TFP are keeping it rather quiet. Front list updated.

[jdaw1]

The Big Fortified Tasting had a 2011 room, in which I photographed some bottles.

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[griff]

Any impressions yet? Very tempted to buy EP as it is our wedding year.

[jdaw1]

Generally serious port. I need to review my notes, and, more importantly, AHB’s. But even the tail end of the distribution made worthwhile port.

[uncle tom]

Any impressions yet? Very tempted to buy EP as it is our wedding year

I found them tough wines to assess, and couldn't help wondering whether the more seductive elements, especially on the nose, would survive the maturation process.

On the whole, I thought the Symingtons had the edge over the TFP, and that the Stone Terraces from Graham made an excellent debut.

The offerings from the Douro Boys also looked very sound.

These look like wines for the long haul, and it could well become a landmark vintage.

Whilst historic comparisons are dangerous territory at this stage, 1966 has been mentioned more than once.

[djewesbury]

Really enjoyed the Niepoorts.. I would like to buy the main vintage in big formats, normal formats and small formats. Many of each. It has the dense concentration that the whole vintage seems to have but the tannins are very fresh, and help to lighten what could easily become very jammy. Really delightful. The Bioma is great too, a light finish that isn't too dominating, and fruit that isn't too sweet.

The Stone Terraces is very, very soft, without a great dryness, and I wonder is this something that will develop, or will this wine be too soft? I know nothing about how a wine like this might age, but it seemed that there wasn't a really big backbone to this - it seems to be perfect to drink now.

I liked the Dow too - quite the opposite of the GST, a real structure that I felt everything else could hang off.

I had two pints of beer en route from the Glaziers' Hall to the Bunghole, and I fear this must be what made me unintelligible later in the evening. I think I probably owe an apology to someone, somewhere, but I have no idea who. Thankfully I had someone with me who could tell me quite a lot of what I'd said and done.

[DRT]

I had two pints of beer en route from the Glaziers' Hall to the Bunghole, and I fear this must be what made me unintelligible later in the evening. I think I probably owe an apology to someone, somewhere, but I have no idea who. Thankfully I had someone with me who could tell me quite a lot of what I'd said and done.

I cannot think of anyone to whom you owe an apology. Your very best Belfast accent was entirely intelligible as you made your grand exit from The Bunghole

[djewesbury]

Your very best Belfast accent was entirely intelligible as you made your grand exit from The Bunghole

oh dear...

[griff]

Thank you all for the comments. AHB's comments would also be welcome. Hmm....the delicious agony of choosing awaits

[uncle tom]

2011 TFP release prices now received.

Packing formats available:

12 x 37.5cL
12 x 75cL
6 x 75cL
6 x 150cL
1 x 300cL
1 x 600cL

Skeffington will only be available in 6 x 75cL & 12 x 75cL, VVV will only be available in 3 x 75cL

Prices are per 9L case. Prices for 300cL and 600cL format include a 10% surcharge.

Prices are IB from TPS, offer closes mid July.

Taylor - £456.00/cs (300cL - £167.20, 600cL - £334.40)

Taylor VVV - £1226.64/cs ( = £306.66 for 3 x 75cL)

Fonseca - £456.00/cs (300cL - £167.20, 600cL - £334.40)

Croft - £364.80/cs (300cL - £133.76, 600cL - £267.52)

Skeffington - £228.00/cs

[djewesbury]

Prices are IB from TPS, offer closes mid July.

The Port Society? Is there information online somewhere? (I can't find it...)

[uncle tom]

Send me a pm with your reqts and I'll sort it.

[djewesbury]

Send me a pm with your reqts and I'll sort it.

just done so.. learning all the time..

[PhilW]

Any impressions yet? Very tempted to buy EP as it is our wedding year.

My impression was that quality seemed very good across the board. Caveat: You should take into account with my comments below that I am not generally familiar with tasting such young VPs and so my judgement was based on the wines' current differences, their depth, complexity and structure.

My top three 2011 VPs were (in no particular order) Dow, Fonseca and the Vesuvio Capela; The last of these had a very interesting fresh hint on the nose which seemed almost peachy(?!) overlaying a very deep, full body; I was less impressed by the Ferreria and the Taylor, with the former seeming ultra-dry, and the latter being somewhat weak - but I should acknowledge that my personal taste is not normally in that direction.

Others such as the Rozes, Roriz and Graham Stone Terraces seemed very accessible for early drinking if wanted, with slightly softer and sweeter characters. It will be very interesting to see whether the ones which seem more accessible now continue to be so as they mature.

[jdaw1]

Others such as the Rozes

I was pleasantly surprised to be impressed by the Rozès, though, as Phil says, for early drinking.

[RAYC]

The thing that most struck me about the BFT tasting was the enormous enthusiasm that all of the wine-makers seemed to have for their ports - even allowing for a bit of "hype" (particularly in these difficult times), it is quite unlike anything i have seen before and a good couple of notches up from my recollection of the presentation of the 2007s.

In terms of other key take-aways:

- I enjoyed all the "super-cuvees": Stone Terraces, Vesuvio Capela, Vargellas Vinha Vehla and Bioma Vinha Vehla were all showing well (though Dirk was at pains to state that the Bioma now is not an accurate representation of how it should show after another 7 or 8 months in cask). Given their limited bottling runs, these are probably where i will focus my funds at this stage (on the basis that some of these may be "now or never" purchases, whereas others should still be capable of purchase down the line).

- slightly boring, but Dow, Fonseca and Graham were - to me - the other obvious ones that will score well with the critics.

- Vesuvio put in a strong performance and must be worth a look on the basis of its track record of wines that can be approached with pleasure even in its teen years (none of us are getting any younger...)

- i didn't have quite have a "Noval 2007" moment (which remains my favourite young VP) when tasting these. That said, Noval 2007 was also on display at the BFT and seemed to me to have just started to lose a touch of the balance and aromatics that made it so attractive in 2009/2010. Probably too early to say it is shutting down (though the 2003 was very closed, i thought), but goes to show that while young ports can be very beguiling, they do need the fundamentals underneath. And i don't feel particularly qualified to determine whether or not the characteristics that i enjoy in a young VP are in any way what is needed for it to mature into a 40+yr wine that matches the current 63-66-70s.

[g-man]

My top three 2011 VPs were (in no particular order) Dow, Fonseca and the Vesuvio Capela; The last of these had a very interesting fresh hint on the nose which seemed almost peachy(?!) overlaying a very deep, full body;

i love that you say that becuase that "peachy" is what I got out of the 2003 Fonseca when itw as first released and I absolutely loved it.

[DRT]

Reviews from djewsebury, PhilW and RAYC have been quoted in the 2011 Vintage Review thread. It would be helpful to future readers of this forum if discussion about the respective merits of the 2011 Vintage Ports could continue there instead of here.

[RAYC]

BBR have released their offer for 2011s, and interesting to see that Niepoort is back on their list and that Stone Terraces are not included at the moment - could they be holding these back for allocation? At the moment they have a healthy stock of Capela - at least until CMAG gets his order in!!

[Alex Bridgeman]

If anyone is interested in Portal at well under £100 in bond delivered UK for 6 bottles, please PM me and I will pass on more details.

[djewesbury]

If anyone is interested in Portal at well under £100 in bond delivered UK for 6 bottles, please PM me and I will pass on more details.

Have you tasted it again since declaring it cheesy..? I will PM you now..

[Alex Bridgeman]

Have you tasted it again since declaring it cheesy..? I will PM you now..

No, but I have been promised a sample to include in my planned summer review of the vintage.

[RAYC]

BBR sold their allocation of 60 3-packs of Vesuvio Capela within approximately 24 hours of the offer going live. Apparently pre-offer interest in allocations meant that they could not even list the Stone Terraces.

Fonseca, Graham and Vesuvio look to be selling well, and TVVV looks like it will be gone soon

[Christopher]

BBR have an allocation limit of 2 cases only per clients for any wines being sold in 3 packs, so very impressive. I believe C&B are a few weeks away from their offering.

[djewesbury]

BBR sold their allocation of 60 3-packs of Vesuvio Capela within approximately 24 hours of the offer going live. Apparently pre-offer interest in allocations meant that they could not even list the Stone Terraces.

Fonseca, Graham and Vesuvio look to be selling well, and TVVV looks like it will be gone soon

Right, missed that boat then..
Re the Fonseca:
@uncle tom:
does this affect TPS's allocation...? No, I guess not...

[djewesbury]

correction. caught another boat elsewhere on the riverside..

[djewesbury]

Some merchants (eg Corney & Barrow) are not launching their offers until the Bordeaux EP has abated; presumably their allocations are negotiated already and they're in no rush. C&B say that Stone Terraces and Capela will be in their offer, which they'll be publishing after the 16th.