The 2014 Football World Cup

Post by **jdaw1** » 19:36 Fri 30 May 2014

Apparently some countries are soon to play football in Brazil, infrastructure and unions willing.

Apparently England are one of those countries. And we’re even playing a warm-up game against Peru, live reports suggesting rubbish play and a score of England 1, Peru 0.

This is the thread for commentary on the competition as a whole, and England in particular.

England versus Italy at 23:00 on Sat 14 June.

England versus Uruguay at 20:00 on Thu 19 June.

England versus Costa Rica at 17:00 on Tue 24 June.

djewesbury · Post by **djewesbury** » 19:41 Fri 30 May 2014

Mathematical forecasters estimate that England have a 1% chance of winning.

Post by **jdaw1** » 19:45 Fri 30 May 2014

Some other matches might be worthy of mention.

Portugal versus Germany at 17:00 on Mon 16 June.

USA versus Ghana at 23:00 on Mon 16 June.

Germany versus Ghana at 20:00 on Sat 21 June.

Portugal versus USA at 23:00 on Sun 22 June.

Portugal versus Ghana at 17:00 on Thu 26 June.

USA versus Germany at 17:00 on Thu 26 June.

Post by **DRT** » 19:53 Fri 30 May 2014

djewesbury wrote:Mathematical forecasters estimate that England have a 1% chance of winning.

William Hill say 25/1. Strangely, England are 5/1 to reach the quarter finals and also 5/1 to reach the semi-finals. That doesn't seem right to me.

Post by **jdaw1** » 19:56 Fri 30 May 2014

djewesbury wrote:Mathematical forecasters estimate that England have a 1% chance of winning.

Bloomberg Sports estimates a 3.4% chance for England. Still terrible, but not quite as terrible as you cite.

Post by **DRT** » 19:57 Fri 30 May 2014

8/1 that England will lose on penalties sounds like good odds to me. £150 on that gets you a case of F70

Post by **jdaw1** » 20:03 Fri 30 May 2014

DRT wrote:£150 on that gets you a case of F70

Unless we’re out before the stages that use penalties; unless we win or lose in those games before penalty time; unless we win at penalties (yes, I know, we are zero from three).

Post by **DRT** » 21:17 Fri 30 May 2014

My World Cup bets are on...

: DRT's case of F70.png (34.43 KiB) Viewed 9141 times

CaliforniaBrad · Post by **CaliforniaBrad** » 21:40 Fri 30 May 2014

DRT wrote:
djewesbury wrote:Mathematical forecasters estimate that England have a 1% chance of winning.
William Hill say 25/1. Strangely, England are 5/1 to reach the quarter finals and also 5/1 to reach the semi-finals. That doesn't seem right to me.

Apparently the fix is already in if they reach the quarter finals.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Post by **DRT** » 21:58 Fri 30 May 2014

Now including bets from others at Chez DRT...

: Screen Shot 2014-05-30 at 22.55.00.png (64.09 KiB) Viewed 9129 times

Does anyone want to guess the odds on DRT being paid the stakes for the bets he just put on for others?

Post by **jdaw1** » 21:59 Fri 30 May 2014

DRT wrote:My World Cup bets are on...

Are the bets for equal sums?

Post by **DRT** » 22:04 Fri 30 May 2014

jdaw1 wrote:
DRT wrote:My World Cup bets are on...
Are the bets for equal sums?

No.

I was careful with my own bets in that all of them can come in. Others have bet against me.

Post by **jdaw1** » 20:38 Wed 04 Jun 2014

Another warm-up friendly.

England versus Ecuador

Currently 2-2. Oh dear: group stage termination beckons. And red cards.

Post by **jdaw1** » 23:08 Sat 07 Jun 2014

Another warm-up friendly.

England versus Honduras

Currently 0-0. Oh dear: group stage termination beckons.

Post by **DRT** » 23:16 Sat 07 Jun 2014

Hmmm. I'm watching that now. Deadly dull.

This whole situation is quite concerning to people of my ethnicity. For decades we have watched with amusement whilst the press, the TV commentators and the flag-waving masses have stirred up a frenzy having persuaded themselves that England not only deserve to but should win the World Cup. Each time it has ended in scenes of defeat, recrimination and despair of monumental proportions that have been part of the furniture of the World Cup experience for the rest of the world. But there is a different smell in the air this time.

Could this be England's year? Could it be that the lack of unwarranted pressure will allow the team to flourish and give of its best?

Probably not.

AW77 · Post by **AW77** » 23:23 Sat 07 Jun 2014

If I may comment on the football issue from an outside perspective:
I always wondered why there is no UK team, but only an English, Scoottish or Welch team. Not pooling the UK's best players together in one team is crazy from a German perspective.

LGTrotter · Post by **LGTrotter** » 23:23 Sat 07 Jun 2014

It's all over, Germany won already; http://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2014/05/ ... -world-cup

Post by **DRT** » 23:34 Sat 07 Jun 2014

AW77 wrote:I always wondered why there is no UK team, but only an English, Scoottish or Welch team. Not pooling the UK's best players together in one team is crazy from a German perspective.

You are not alone in your wonderment. The reason is that the British have a long history of believing they are entitled to somewhat different rules than everyone else.

Examples:

Olympics - "Team GB" should actually be "Team UK" as it includes Northern Ireland.

Rugby: "The Six Nations" is actually "Two Nations, Three Provinces and a nation that no longer exists"

Football: "One Nation, four votes at FIFA/UEFA"

Quite pathetic really.

CaliforniaBrad · Post by **CaliforniaBrad** » 04:15 Sun 08 Jun 2014

Excellent show by the Yankees against Nigeria today. Much better than the anemic showing of defense that was exhibited against Turkey just a match before.

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Post by **jdaw1** » 10:36 Mon 09 Jun 2014

Apparently the world's most dangerous footballer is Cristiano Ronaldo.

Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo just barely edges out Argentina’s Lionel Messi as the world’s riskiest football player to search for online. According to research from McAfee, part of Intel Security, the rivalry between the world’s top two players has followed them to the McAfee Red Card Club, a brotherhood of eleven Brazil-bound players whose web pages present the greatest threat of infecting site visitors with malware.

You have been warned: bad guys have noticed the World Cup.

Post by **DRT** » 22:34 Mon 09 Jun 2014

jdaw1 wrote:You have been warned: bad guys have noticed the World Cup.

Given that this thread will no doubt become the definitive point of reference for the world's media and football supporters from all nations looking for insightful commentary and thought-provoking debate, should we be taking extra precautions to ensure

remains secure?

Post by **jdaw1** » 22:53 Mon 09 Jun 2014

DRT wrote:insightful commentary and thought-provoking debate

England won’t be knocked out until, at least, the end of the group stage.

Post by **DRT** » 23:00 Mon 09 Jun 2014

jdaw1 wrote:
DRT wrote:insightful commentary and thought-provoking debate
England won’t be knocked out until, at least, the end of the group stage.

Agreed, but I think they will progress beyond that. Italy are notoriously slow starters in international competitions. At worst I think England will draw with Italy, but rather suspect they will beat them. They will then lose the next game comprehensively but win the third with a late goal following almost 90 minutes of torture for their devoted fans.

45 seconds after qualifying Gary Lineaker or someone similar will postulate that this could be England's year (mentioning 1966, of course). Then the circus will begin. No more than one week later PaddyPower will be paying me my winnings at 8/1 on England going out on penalties.

You heard it here first.

Post by **DRT** » 23:07 Mon 09 Jun 2014

DRT wrote:My World Cup bets are on...

DRT's case of F70.png (34.43 KiB) Viewed 9006 times

In the spirit of togetherness that defines the World Cup I will make this promise. If all of the above bets are won I will supply a 6-pack of Taylor 1985 for the next

"Let's drink a case of Port" experiment. But there is one condition: LGTrotter must attend as my guest of honour.

djewesbury · Post by **djewesbury** » 01:40 Tue 10 Jun 2014

Blimey. Given Derek's record I think we should all go and put on exactly the same bets. Now.

LGTrotter · Post by **LGTrotter** » 23:01 Tue 10 Jun 2014

DRT wrote:In the spirit of togetherness that defines the World Cup I will make this promise. If all of the above bets are won I will supply a 6-pack of Taylor 1985 for the next "Let's drink a case of Port" experiment. But there is one condition: LGTrotter must attend as my guest of honour.

Awww! Derek! I've only just noticed this. In the spirit of the triumph of hope over experience I shall do all in my feeble power to attend should this come off.

For the first time I have some genuine interest in footie. You beauty.

Post by **DRT** » 23:22 Tue 10 Jun 2014

I have checked the maths and am convinced that my bets are sure to come off. Owen, book your train tickets to London now. They will be much more expensive by the time PaddyPower pay me my money.

LGTrotter · Post by **LGTrotter** » 00:39 Wed 11 Jun 2014

A five horse accumulator? How about if you settle for just four bets coming off? Or are you determined to keep your Taylor 85 safe from predation and me from being pelted with food?

djewesbury · Post by **djewesbury** » 09:09 Wed 11 Jun 2014

Personally I think England going out on penalties is too funny a prospect to come true.

Post by **DRT** » 13:22 Wed 11 Jun 2014

LGTrotter wrote:A five horse accumulator? How about if you settle for just four bets coming off? Or are you determined to keep your Taylor 85 safe from predation and me from being pelted with food?

It's not an accumulator, they are each separate bets.

The offer was made for five. If only four come in something else might be done, but it would depend on which four they were. Not all of the bets have similar returns.

Post by **DRT** » 20:22 Thu 12 Jun 2014

The dream lasted only 11 minutes before Brazil scored their first goal of the tournament, in their own net.

Fear not, gents, the 0-0 draw was by far the smallest potential return of the five bets. The T85 is still safe.

AW77 · Post by **AW77** » 21:54 Thu 12 Jun 2014

Just watching the Brazil game: Luiz Gustavo looks like a young Sammy Davis, Jr. to me. Or is this too far-fetched?

Post by **jdaw1** » 21:59 Thu 12 Jun 2014


Brazil	Croatia
3	1

The world awaits the verdict of the

experts. What say we?

LGTrotter · Post by **LGTrotter** » 22:06 Thu 12 Jun 2014

jdaw1 wrote:The world awaits the verdict of the experts. What say we?

Balls! One step further away from a generous offer.

Post by **DRT** » 22:25 Thu 12 Jun 2014

LGTrotter wrote:
jdaw1 wrote:The world awaits the verdict of the experts. What say we?
Balls! One step further away from a generous offer.

More to say than that.

Firstly, the dullness of the game was predictable. The first game of major footy tournaments are very often dull, which is why I went for the 0-0 draw bet.

Secondly, the referee was intimidated by the occasion. Another predictable event.

It was never a penalty, and it turned the game in favour of the hosts.

Overall a dull affair where the best team won a little unfairly.

The bullet holes in the studio window behind Adrian Chils was the most exciting part of the event.

idj123 · Post by **idj123** » 12:12 Fri 13 Jun 2014

Neither team looked any great shakes and without the ref's intervention the game would almost certainly have ended 1-1. Both will qualify for the knock-out stages but Brazil seem too dependent on Neymar to go all the way in what to me feels like it's going to be a very open tournament.

LGTrotter · Post by **LGTrotter** » 19:19 Fri 13 Jun 2014

Listening to Tim Harford on more or less today (radio 4) he came up with the perfect example of the 'birthday paradox'. This is that in a group of 23 people you have a slightly more than even chance of 2 people in that group sharing a birthday. World cup squads have 23 people in them and there are 32 of them in the competition.

So how many squads have a players sharing a birthday?

16. Don't you just love maths!

Post by **DRT** » 19:23 Fri 13 Jun 2014

LGTrotter wrote:Listening to Tim Harford on more or less today (radio 4) he came up with the perfect example of the 'birthday paradox'. This is that in a group of 23 people you have a slightly more than even chance of 2 people in that group sharing a birthday. World cup squads have 23 people in them and there are 32 of them in the competition.

So how many squads have a players sharing a birthday?

16. Don't you just love maths!

Is that the actual number or the number of teams that are likely to have players sharing a birthday?

I work with actuaries so I know that question is important.

LGTrotter · Post by **LGTrotter** » 19:25 Fri 13 Jun 2014

Actual number of teams with players who share a birthday.

Some teams have more than 2 players sharing a birthday. Radio 4 would not lie to me, you can take this one to the bank.

Post by **DRT** » 19:27 Fri 13 Jun 2014

Your faith in the BBC is, erm, admirable.

LGTrotter · Post by **LGTrotter** » 19:37 Fri 13 Jun 2014

DRT wrote:Your faith in the BBC is, erm, admirable.

But this is radio 4 and more to the matter Tim Harford. Of the FT.

Post by **DRT** » 20:16 Fri 13 Jun 2014

LGTrotter wrote:
DRT wrote:Your faith in the BBC is, erm, admirable.
But this is radio 4 and more to the matter Tim Harford. Of the FT.

I'm still not convinced.

Do you know what the chances are of a statistically likely outcome actually being the real outcome?

Post by **DRT** » 20:32 Fri 13 Jun 2014

Spain are now 4-1 down to the Netherlands. My 13/2 bet on them winning the trophy is perhaps under threat.

The T85 might be safe after all.

Post by **jdaw1** » 20:42 Fri 13 Jun 2014

djewesbury wrote:Blimey. Given Derek's record I think we should all go and put on exactly the same bets. Now.

The BBC wrote:Spain have conceded five goals in an international for the first time since losing 6-2 to Scotland in June 1963.

Post by **jdaw1** » 20:47 Fri 13 Jun 2014


Mexico	Cameroon
1	0

The world awaits the verdict of the

experts. What say we?

Post by **jdaw1** » 20:52 Fri 13 Jun 2014


Netherlands	Spain
5	1

The world awaits the verdict of the

experts. What say we?

LGTrotter · Post by **LGTrotter** » 20:53 Fri 13 Jun 2014

DRT wrote:Do you know what the chances are of a statistically likely outcome actually being the real outcome?

I assume this is a rhetorical device but I feel obliged to say no.

No.

Post by **DRT** » 21:06 Fri 13 Jun 2014

jdaw1 wrote:The world awaits the verdict of the experts. What say we?

Mexico have the dubious honour of having lost more World Cup games than any other team. That might sound negative, but it is actually a function of their consistency in qualification for the finals. They will be no threat.

The Netherlands were outstanding. If there is a Fonseca 1970 display of the World Cup that was it.

Spain will still win the cup.

DRT has hedged by taking Netherlands at 16/1, thereby potentially saving the T85 tasting.

Post by **DRT** » 21:07 Fri 13 Jun 2014

LGTrotter wrote:
DRT wrote:Do you know what the chances are of a statistically likely outcome actually being the real outcome?
I assume this is a rhetorical device but I feel obliged to say no.

No.

2/1.

Post by **jdaw1** » 21:20 Fri 13 Jun 2014

DRT wrote:DRT has hedged by taking Netherlands at 16/1, thereby potentially saving the T85 tasting.

Is there a misère prize: what do we drink if you lose every bet?